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Minnesota: Obama Continues to Dominate

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Minnesota the state shows that Barack Obama leads McCain by double-digits, 52% to 39%. That’s the third straight month with virtually identical poll results. A month ago, Obama led 53% to 38%.

In four of the last five polls, Obama has enjoyed a 13 to 15 point lead. The one exception came in mid-March when McCain pulled to within four points of Obama. That poll was conducted two weeks after McCain wrapped up the GOP nomination and a few days after the first round of stories about Obama’s controversial former pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

Obama is supported by 86% of Democrats in the state and leads 50% to 32% among unaffiliated voters. McCain attracts 88% of Republicans.

While Obama has enjoyed a consistent lead in Minnesota, he has enjoyed a nice bounce nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll since wrapping up the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given an % chance of winning Minnesota in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). Minnesota has cast its Electoral College Votes for the Democratic candidate in eight straight elections dating back to 1976. That’s the longest streak in the nation, but the last couple of Democratic victories have been won with modest margins—three percentage points in Election 2004 and two points in Election 2000. Minnesota is considered a “Likely Democratic” state in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Sixty percent (60%) of Minnesota voters have a favorable opinion of Obama while McCain is viewed favorably by 54%. For both men, those numbers reflect a slight improvement over the past month.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of Minnesota voters believe McCain is too old to be President while 41% say Obama is too inexperienced. Those figures are close to the national average.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) say it is more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the War. Thirty-five percent (35%) disagree and say victory is the higher priority. Those figures are a few points to the left of the nation average.

Sixty-six percent (66%) say that the federal government has become a special interest group, only 15% disagree. Only 14% believe the government today represents the will of the people. Those figures are close to the national average as well.

Just 30% of Minnesota voters say that George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job as President. Nationally, the President’s Approval Ratings are at an all-time low. In Minnesota, 56% say Bush is doing a poor job.

Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman is one of several endangered incumbents in Election 2008. Minnesota’s Senate race looks to be very competitive.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

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Minnesota
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

43%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

55%

54%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 11, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Minnesota Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

55%

10/22/2008

41%

56%

10/07/2008

45%

52%

09/18/2008

44%

52%

08/13/2008

42%

46%

07/22/2008

37%

49%

07/10/2008

34%

52%

06/11/2008

39%

52%

05/22/2008

38%

53%

04/22/2008

38%

52%

03/19/2008

43%

47%

02/16/2008

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Minnesota

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

25%

11%

Very Unfavorable

21%

27%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.