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Minnesota: Obama 52% McCain 38%

While Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton still struggle for the nomination, both Democrats have gained ground on John McCain in Minnesota. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows that Barack Obama leads McCain by double-digits, 52% to 38%. A month ago, the Democratic frontrunner’s lead over McCain was just four points. However, the current results for an Obama-McCain match-up are virtually identical to results from February.

Clinton now leads McCain by five percentage points, 47% to 42%. A month ago, they were essentially even. Two months ago, McCain had a five-point lead over Clinton.

Both Democrats lead McCain by more than twenty points among women. Among men, Obama has a slight edge over McCain while Clinton trails the Republican by sixteen. Both Obama and Clinton attract at least 80% of the Democratic vote in Minnesota. That unity has not been found in most other states or nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Minnesota has cast its Electoral College Votes for the Democratic candidate in eight straight elections dating back to 1976. That’s the longest streak in the nation, but the last couple of Democratic victories have been won with modest margins—three percentage points in Election 2004 and two points in Election 2000.

With release of this poll, Minnesota is shifting from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Data from Rasmussen Markets shows Democrats are heavily favored to win the state—current prices give place expectations of a Democratic victory at %. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.

Sixty percent (60%) of Minnesota voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, up from 57% a month ago. McCain’s favorables are at 56%, Clinton’s at 51%.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Currently, the three-poll rolling average shows McCain and Clinton tied at 45% while Obama holds an eleven point advantage over McCain, 51% to 40%.

If Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is selected as John McCain’s running mate, 30% of Minnesota voters would be more likely to vote for the GOP ticket. Thirty-five percent (35%) would be less likely to do so and 32% say it would have no impact. Among Republicans, 60% would be more likely to support the ticket. That enthusiasm is shared by 23% of unaffiliated voters and 13% of Democrats.

Forty-four percent (44%) say that Pawlenty is doing a Good or Excellent job as Governor. Twenty-three percent (23%) rate his performance as Poor.

Most Minnesota voters (52%) say that George W. Bush is doing a Poor job as President. Just 32% say he is doing a Good or Excellent Job.

Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman is one of several endangered incumbents in Election 2008. Minnesota’s Senate race looks to be very competitive.

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Minnesota
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

43%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

55%

54%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports April 22, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Minnesota Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

05/22/2008

38%

53%

04/22/2008

42%

47%

03/19/2008

47%

46%

02/16/2008

47%

42%

Minnesota Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

55%

10/22/2008

41%

56%

10/07/2008

45%

52%

09/18/2008

44%

52%

08/13/2008

42%

46%

07/22/2008

37%

49%

07/10/2008

34%

52%

06/11/2008

39%

52%

05/22/2008

38%

53%

04/22/2008

38%

52%

03/19/2008

43%

47%

02/16/2008

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Minnesota

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

25%

11%

Very Unfavorable

21%

27%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.