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Election 2008: Minnesota Presidential Election
Obama Ahead by 12 in Minnesota

Minnesota is still solidly in Barack Obama’s column in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Obama leads John McCain 55% to 43%. One percent (1%) support some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) are undecided.

Last week it was a 15-point spread, with Obama ahead 56% to 41%.

Obama has led in Minnesota in all Rasmussen Reports polling this year. McCain was within four points in August, but then Obama pulled away again, as he has in many parts of the country since Wall Street’s woes began dominating the front pages.

Nationally Obama has maintained a steady lead over McCain all month in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, but today’s numbers show a slight tightening of the race.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

The latest numbers in Minnesota’s hotly contested senate race show Republican incumbent Norm Coleman back ahead of Democrat Al Franken.

Obama has a 19-point lead among unaffiliated voters in Minnesota. He leads by eight points among male voters, 16 among women.

Forty-five percent (45%) of Minnesota voters say the economy is the most important issue in this election, and among those voters Obama leads 73% to 26%. Obama also has a nine-point edge among all voters in terms of trust on the economy and jobs.

In a distant second, 18% say national security is the number one issue in the election. McCain has a 77% to 23% lead among these voters. But Minnesota voters overall are evenly divided on which candidate they trust more on national security.

Obama is viewed favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 38%. Fifty-four percent (54%) have a favorable opinion of McCain, while 46% regard him unfavorably.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats currently have an % chance of winning Minnesota’s 10 Electoral College votes in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). Minnesota is considered a “Likely Democratic” state in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Battleground state polls released Monday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”

In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-174.

Other new polls show McCain ahead in Alaska, Arkansas and Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in New Mexico, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

 

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Minnesota voters say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, but 54% rate his performance as poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Minnesota Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

43%

43%

42%

Obama (D)

55%

54%

51%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Minnesota Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

55%

10/22/2008

41%

56%

10/07/2008

45%

52%

09/18/2008

44%

52%

08/13/2008

42%

46%

07/22/2008

37%

49%

07/10/2008

34%

52%

06/11/2008

39%

52%

05/22/2008

38%

53%

04/22/2008

38%

52%

03/19/2008

43%

47%

02/16/2008

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Minnesota

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

45%

Somewhat Favorable

26%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

25%

11%

Very Unfavorable

21%

27%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.