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Obama Posts 16-Point Lead in Michigan

Just days after John McCain scaled back his campaign in Michigan, a new Rasmussen Reports survey of voters there shows Barack Obama with a 16-point lead on his Republican opponent.

Obama leads McCain 56% to 40% in the survey taken Wednesday night. A month ago, the Democrat was ahead by seven points, 51% to 44%.

Michigan’s 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections.

Nationally, Obama has been gaining ground steadily in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll ever since the turmoil on Wall Street began dominating the news. Michigan has been particularly hard hit economically in recent months, with the Big Three automakers struggling to survive. (Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Sixty percent (60%) of Michigan voters now rate the economy as the most important issue in the election, an increase of eight points from a month ago. National security is most important to just 13%.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) say economic conditions in Michigan are getting worse.

Fifty-five percent (55%) believe Obama is the candidate most likely to boost the auto industry, while just under half that many (27%) think that of McCain.

The gap is narrower when it’s a question of who has shown greater leadership during the economic crisis so far. Forty-seven percent (47%) say Obama, 36% McCain.

Michigan voters trust Obama more than McCain on the economy – 56% to 37% - and on national security – 50% to 45%. In most states, McCain has the edge on the latter issue.

In a survey taken after the first debate on September 26, voters nationwide said they trusted Obama more on all 10 major issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports, including the handling of the war in Iraq.

Obama has the support of 95% of Michigan Democrats and holds a nine point advantage among unaffiliated voters. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of GOP voters back McCain (see full demographic crosstabs).

McCain is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 51%. Obama has 61% favorables, 38% unfavorables.

Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is regarded favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 50%. Obama’s running mate Joseph Biden is seen favorably by 59% and unfavorably by 39%.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning the state this year. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Sixty-one percent (61%) say the future of Detroit is better now that scandal-plagued Democratic Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick has resigned following a guilty plea on two felony charges of obstruction of justice.Despite their worries about the economy, voters also believe by a 48% to 32% margin that Michigan college graduates should stay in the state rather than leave for career reasons.

Just 26% of Michigan voters give President Bush good or excellent marks for his job performance, but 56% rate his performance as poor.

As this poll is released, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 248-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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Michigan Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

43%

42%

41%

Obama (D)

53%

53%

50%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Michigan Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

53%

10/08/2008

40%

56%

09/21/2008

44%

51%

09/10/2008

46%

51%

08/07/2008

40%

47%

07/10/2008

39%

47%

06/09/2008

42%

45%

05/07/2008

45%

44%

03/25/2008

43%

42%

03/10/2008

44%

41%

02/17/2008

39%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Michigan

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

25%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

29%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.