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Obama Maintains Lead in Battleground Michigan

Michigan has cast its votes for the Democratic presidential candidate in four straight elections, and Barack Obama is trying to extend that streak. He currently holds a five point advantage--51% to 46%--over John McCain in this important battleground state.

Those figures are little changed from a month ago when Obama held a 49% to 45% lead (with leaners).
Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Michigan is increasingly viewed as one of a handful of states that the election will turn on, so both candidates are now spending more on ads there. It was one of the first states McCain visited with his new running mate Sarah Palin following last week's Republican National Convention.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of Michigan voters, up from 54% a month ago.

McCain’s favorability rating continues to fall. It's now at 52%, down from 54% a month ago and 60% in July.

Obama has an eight-point lead among women, but the candidates are essentially even among men.
McCain leads handily among regular churchgoers while Obama has the edge among those who rarely or never attend services (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

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As for the running mates, 53% have a favorable opinion of Palin while 52% say the same about Joseph Biden. However, opinions are much stronger about the Alaska governor—37% have a Very Favorable opinion of her while just 23% are that pleased with the longtime Delaware senator.

Fifty-two percent (52%) say McCain made the right choice when he asked Palin to join the Republican ticket.

Forty-two percent (42%) say Obama made the right choice of a running mate. Biden himself made headlines yesterday by suggesting that Hillary Clinton might have been a better option for Obama.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Michigan voters say the economy is the top issue of Election 2008. Just 21% see national security issues as the highest priority.

Michigan’s 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning the state this year. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Now 31% of Michigan voters think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, but most (52%) say he is doing a poor job.

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The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Michigan
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

43%

42%

41%

Obama (D)

53%

53%

50%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Michigan Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

53%

10/08/2008

40%

56%

09/21/2008

44%

51%

09/10/2008

46%

51%

08/07/2008

40%

47%

07/10/2008

39%

47%

06/09/2008

42%

45%

05/07/2008

45%

44%

03/25/2008

43%

42%

03/10/2008

44%

41%

02/17/2008

39%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Michigan

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

25%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

29%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.