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Michigan: Obama still ahead 47% to 40%

Barack Obama still holds a solid 47% to 40% lead over John McCain in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters there.

Obama’s lead has dropped a statistically insignificant one-point since last month.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama has a narrower 49% to 45% lead on his Republican rival.

Michigan is increasingly viewed as one of a handful of states that the election will turn on, so both candidates are now spending more on ads there. Obama just this week proposed $4 billion in loans and tax credits to help retool closed factories in Michigan, and his energy plan calls for federal funding to help the ailing auto industry produce more fuel-efficient vehicles. McCain is reportedly considering Mitt Romney as a running mate because the latter is a native of Michigan and is popular with voters in the state.

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

While Obama and McCain both have the support of over 80% of their respective party members in Michigan, the Republican maintains an edge among unaffiliated voters 41% to 37%.

McCain continues to lose ground among male voters. Obama has a slight 45% to 43% lead among men, compared to last month when McCain enjoyed a 46% to 41% margin. In May the GOP candidate had a 19-percentage point lead. Obama’s 49% to 36% lead among women voters is roughly the same as in July.

Obama’s favorability rating has fallen back to where it was in June. Last month 60% of Michigan voters regarded him favorably. Now 54% feel that way. But the number who regard him in Very Favorable terms has edged up to 36%. Forty-five percent of voters, however, regard him unfavorably, roughly the same as the last two months.

Those who have a favorable view of McCain have dropped from 59% in July to 55% now, but 22% now say their opinion of him is Very Favorable, compared to 18% for the previous two months. Those who view McCain unfavorably stands at 43%, down from 46% a month earlier.

Both candidates’ wives are viewed favorably in Michigan – Michelle Obama by 52%, Cindy McCain by 50%. Forty-two percent (40%) have an unfavorable view of Mrs. Obama versus 31% who feel that way about Mrs. McCain.

One-third of Michigan voters (33%) think McCain is too old to be president, but 59% disagree. Forty-three percent (43%) say Obama is too inexperienced to be president, but slightly more (47%) do not concur.

Michigan’s 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a -- % chance of winning the state this year. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Michigan has been harder hit economically than many parts of the country, and over half of the state’s voters (52%) now say economic issues are their number one concern in this election, up from 49% in July. National security, which was the top issue in the 2004 election cycle, is now viewed that way by only 18%.

Voters see both men virtually tied when asked which will be better for the auto industry – 43% say McCain, 44% Obama. But 57% say McCain will be better for the oil industry versus 26% who think that of his Democratic opponent.

Sixty-three percent (63%) say finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans consume, but 29% see cutting energy usage as more important. Forty-four percent (44%) say high gas prices are more likely than government regulation to reduce U.S. energy consumption, although 35% think government regulation will be more effective.

Now 33% of Michigan voters think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, up for the second month in a row. But over half (53%) still rate his performance poor, down from 57% in July.

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The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

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Michigan Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

43%

42%

41%

Obama (D)

53%

53%

50%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on August 7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Michigan Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

53%

10/08/2008

40%

56%

09/21/2008

44%

51%

09/10/2008

46%

51%

08/07/2008

40%

47%

07/10/2008

39%

47%

06/09/2008

42%

45%

05/07/2008

45%

44%

03/25/2008

43%

42%

03/10/2008

44%

41%

02/17/2008

39%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Michigan

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

25%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

29%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.