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Michigan: Obama’s Lead Grows to 8%

Barack Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain to eight percentage points in the economic battleground state of Michigan, with much of his new support coming from voters who have moved away from the Republican hopeful.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds 47% of Michigan voters favoring Obama while 39% back McCain. A month ago Obama had 45% support and McCain tallied 42%. When leaners are factored in, Obama leads by the same margin of eight points, 50% to 42%.

In May McCain had a statistically insignificant one-point lead, but Obama has been gaining ground since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race.

McCain enjoys only a 46% to 41% lead over Obama among male voters now, down from a 19-percentage point lead in May. The Democrat shows a slight uptick among women voters who have consistently supported him over McCain. Now women favor Obama 51% to 35%.

While party regulars overwhelmingly support their respective candidates, Obama has turned it around with unaffiliated voters. Last month McCain had a five-point lead, down from 13 points a month earlier. Now Obama leads among unaffiliated voters 42% to 35%.

The Michigan survey, taken last Thursday night, came before the tightening of the race in Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Obama had enjoyed a bounce in the polls after Clinton quit the race, but now he and McCain nationally are virtually tied.

In Michigan, Obama’s favorability rating also has gone up in the last month: He now is regarded favorably by 60% of voters, up from 54% in early June. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of Michigan voters, roughly where he was a month ago. But 35% also now have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama, up 5% from last month. McCain remains at 18% in this category. The unfavorable ratings for both candidates remain largely unchanged.

Michigan, with 17 Electoral College votes, has gone to the Democratic presidential candidate in the last four elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of doing carrying the state again in November. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

One out of two Michigan voters (49%) now rate economic issues as the most important, far outdistancing their number two concern which is national security.

Like most voters throughout the country, 62% in Michigan believe that offshore oil drilling should be resumed and 53% believe that gas prices will fall accordingly.

While 42% of Michigan voters regard reducing the price of gas and oil as more important than protecting the environment, nearly as many (40%) disagree. But 53% favor drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska, which national Democrats have consistently opposed for environmental reasons.

Most Michigan voters (56%), like the majority nationwide, reject a return to the 55 mph speed limit, with 63% saying that mandating the lower speed will not reduce gas and oil prices.

Although those who think President Bush is doing a good to excellent job increased slightly to 30%, so did the number of Michigan voters who think he is doing a poor job, up now to 57%. Nationally the president continues to earn record low ratings in job approval.

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The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

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Michigan
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

43%

42%

41%

Obama (D)

53%

53%

50%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Michigan Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

53%

10/08/2008

40%

56%

09/21/2008

44%

51%

09/10/2008

46%

51%

08/07/2008

40%

47%

07/10/2008

39%

47%

06/09/2008

42%

45%

05/07/2008

45%

44%

03/25/2008

43%

42%

03/10/2008

44%

41%

02/17/2008

39%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Michigan

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

25%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

29%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.