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Michigan: McCain 45% Obama 44%

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Michigan shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 44%. Six percent (6%) say they would vote for a third-party candidate and 5% remain undecided. Those results are similar to a late-March survey that also showed McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage. In February, McCain had a three-point lead.

McCain leads by nineteen percentage points among men while Obama leads by fifteen points among women. McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans while Obama currently gets the vote from 70% of Democrats. McCain leads by thirteen points among Michigan’s unaffiliated voters.

As we have seen in other polling, there is a generation gap in the McCain-Obama match-up. Obama leads among voters under 40 while McCain has the advantage among older voters.

Investors favor McCain by a 51% to 38% margin while non-Investors favor Obama by a similar margin. McCain leads by sixteen points among married voters but trails by twenty-three among those who are not married. McCain leads among those who attend church or religious services more than once a month. Obama leads among those who attend services less regularly.

Nationally, McCain and Obama remain closely matched in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, she and McCain are tied in Michigan at 44%. In that match-up, 9% opt for a third-party candidate while 4% are undecided. Clinton does better against McCain among voters who earn less than $60,000 a year while Obama does better among upper-income voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of the state’s voters. Obama earns positive reviews from 50%, Clinton from 49%. Those figures are little changed from the previous survey. McCain is viewed favorably by 65% of unaffiliated voters in Michigan. Among those same voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 46% and Clinton by 40%.

McCain will get no help from the President—54% of Michigan voters say that George W. Bush is doing a Poor job. Just 32% say he is doing a Good or Excellent job.

Voters are a bit less pessimistic about their Governor—41% say that Jennifer Granholm is doing a Poor job while 31% say Good or Excellent.

Michigan has cast its seventeen Electoral College votes for the Democrats in four straight Presidential elections. However this economically devastated state has been trending slightly in the Republican direction—Bill Clinton won Michigan by thirteen points in 1996, Al Gore won by five in 2000, and John Kerry won by just three points in 2004. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of doing carrying the state for the fifth straight time this November. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Fifty percent (50%) of Michigan voters favor a federal gas tax holiday for the summer. Forty-three percent (43%) are opposed. Nationally, voters are evenly divided on this question.

Just 30% of Michigan voters say the federal government needs more revenue to fund important national programs. Fifty-six percent (56%) disagree and say the government does not need any more revenue.

By a 66% to 20% margin, Michigan voters oppose an increase in the capital gains tax. Opposition comes from 81% of Republicans, 56% of Democrats, and 66% of unaffiliated voters.

One reason for such opposition may be that 57% of Michigan voters own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, or mutual funds. That figure includes a solid majority of middle-income voters. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans are Investors along with 47% of Democrats and 65% of unaffiliated voters.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Michigan voters believe that hiking the capital gains tax would hurt the economy. Just 13% believe it would help.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Michigan Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

43%

42%

41%

Obama (D)

53%

53%

50%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on May 7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Michigan Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

5/07/2008

44%

44%

3/25/2008

45%

42%

3/10/2008

46%

43%

2/17/2008

44%

44%

Michigan Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

53%

10/08/2008

40%

56%

09/21/2008

44%

51%

09/10/2008

46%

51%

08/07/2008

40%

47%

07/10/2008

39%

47%

06/09/2008

42%

45%

05/07/2008

45%

44%

03/25/2008

43%

42%

03/10/2008

44%

41%

02/17/2008

39%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Michigan

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

25%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

29%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.