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In Michigan, Obama 51% McCain 44%

The first Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Michigan the state finds Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. An earlier Rasmussen Reports survey found Obama with a five point advantage two weeks ago. In August, Obama held a four-point advantage.

However, the latest polling shows that just 77% of Obama voters and 74% of McCain supporters are certain they won’t change their mind before voting. That’s enough to keep both campaigns looking at Michigan as a competitive state with just six weeks to go. Nationally, the race remains close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Michigan, Obama trails by seven among white voters but attracts 84% of all other voters in the state (full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members).

The Democratic hopeful is viewed favorably by 59% of voters statewide. McCain earns positive reviews from 53%.

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Fifty-two percent (52%) of Michigan voters say the economy is the top issue for Election 2008. On that issue, 51% say they trust Obama more than McCain while 41% voice the opposite opinion.

On national security matters, McCain is trusted more, but just 19% of Michigan voters rank that as their top voting priority.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel jointly release a series battleground state polls every Monday night at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. Other polls tonight were released for Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Premium Members can review full demographic crosstabs for all state polls and get the first look at all Rasmussen Reports polling data. Learn More.

Michigan’s 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning the state this year. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

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Michigan
Likely Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

43%

42%

41%

Obama (D)

53%

53%

50%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Michigan Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

53%

10/08/2008

40%

56%

09/21/2008

44%

51%

09/10/2008

46%

51%

08/07/2008

40%

47%

07/10/2008

39%

47%

06/09/2008

42%

45%

05/07/2008

45%

44%

03/25/2008

43%

42%

03/10/2008

44%

41%

02/17/2008

39%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Michigan

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

25%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

29%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.