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Election 2008: Michigan Presidential Election
Obama 53%, McCain 43% in Michigan

Barack Obama now leads John McCain 53% to 43% in Michigan, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Though Obama is down from the 16-point lead he held earlier in the month, he still holds a greater advantage over McCain than in all previous polls dating back to February. This is now the seventh straight poll Obama has held the lead in the state.

Michigan’s 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections.

The nominees are now tied among unaffiliated voters in Michigan at 46%. Two weeks ago, Obama led by 11 percentage points among that demographic. While Obama leads by double-digits among women in Michigan, men now favor McCain 49% to 47%. Just two weeks ago, Obama led 59% to 38% among men.

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Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters and unfavorably by 40%. McCain’s ratings are 53% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning the state this year. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

On the crucial issue of the economy, Michigan voters trust Obama more than McCain by a 54% to 41% margin. Earlier in the month, the Democrat held a 19-point advantage on the issue.

On national security, McCain edges out Obama, 47% to 46%. Just two weeks ago, the Republican trailed by five.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 27% of Michigan voters, while 56% say he is doing a poor job.

Governor Jennifer Granholm earns positive reviews from 36% of voters. Forty-two percent (42%) give her job performance a poor rating.

Battleground state polls released Monday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”

In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-174.

Other new polls show McCain ahead in Alaska, Arkansas and Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

 

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Michigan Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

43%

42%

41%

Obama (D)

53%

53%

50%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 28, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Michigan Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

43%

53%

10/08/2008

40%

56%

09/21/2008

44%

51%

09/10/2008

46%

51%

08/07/2008

40%

47%

07/10/2008

39%

47%

06/09/2008

42%

45%

05/07/2008

45%

44%

03/25/2008

43%

42%

03/10/2008

44%

41%

02/17/2008

39%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Michigan

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

25%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

28%

16%

Somewhat Unfavorable

21%

11%

Very Unfavorable

25%

29%

Not Sure

1%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.