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Election 2008: Iowa Presidential Election
Obama Still Leads by Eight in Iowa

Barack Obama, for the second month in a row has an eight-point lead over John McCain in Iowa, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Obama now leads McCain 52% to 44%. Three percent (3%) are undecided, with one percent (1%) voting for an unspecified third-party candidate.

Last month the Democrat had a 51% to 43% lead. McCain has trailed Obama in Iowa all year.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Iowa voters say Obama is the candidate most likely to carry their state. Twenty-three percent (23%) say the Republican will most likely win Iowa.

President Bush carried Iowa by less than 10,000 votes in 2004, the first time in 20 years that the state had gone for a Republican presidential candidate.

Rasmussen Markets data gives the Democrats a % chance of winning Iowa’s seven Electoral College votes in November. Iowa is rated “Likely Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Nationally, Obama has held a stable lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll ever since the Wall Street debacle began to dominate the news. The Democratic hopeful also has a solid lead in the Electoral College projections.

McCain has the support of 95% of Iowa Republicans. Obama is backed by 91% of Democrats and has a two-point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 44%. McCain’s numbers are 51% favorable, 48% unfavorable.

Forty-one percent of Iowa voters say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign, while 22% rate national security that way. Obama has an eight-point lead over McCain in voter trust on the economy, while the Republican leads by the identical number in voter trust on national security.

Voters are fairly evenly divided on Obama’s belief that when the government spreads the wealth around, it’s good for everybody: 44% agree, 42% disagree.

New presidential polling data also has been released this week from Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Iowa voters say elections are fair to voters, and 61% are very confident that their votes will be accurately counted on Election Day.

Fifty percent (50%) believe it is more likely that people will vote illegally than that legal voters will be denied the chance to cast their ballots. Thirty percent (30%) think the opposite.

Eighty percent (80%) say would-be voters should be required to show photo identification before being allowed to vote, but 13% disagree.

President Bush earns good or excellent marks for his job performance from 27%, but 56% mark his work as poor. This is a slight turn for the worse on both numbers since last month’s survey.

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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Iowa Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/23/2008

44%

52%

43%

51%

41%

46%

38%

48%

38%

45%

42%

44%

42%

46%

41%

44%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Iowa

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

28%

44%

Somewhat Favorable

23%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

14%

Very Unfavorable

24%

30%

Not Sure

1%

0%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.