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Election 2008: Indiana Presidential Election
McCain Lead Down to Three in Indiana

New polling on the presidential race puts Indiana in the toss-up category less than a week before Election Day.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds John McCain slipping below the 50% level of support and clinging to a three-point lead over Barack Obama. McCain now attracts support from 49% of voters and Obama is supported by 46%.

Earlier in the month, McCain had a seven-point lead in the Hoosier State.

Although Indiana has been one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, it has clearly been a target for the Obama campaign this year. Parts of northwestern Indiana are effectively suburbs of Chicago, Obama’s home base. During the Indiana Democratic Primary, strong turnout in this region almost enabled Obama to pull off an upset victory over Hillary Clinton. It is possible that a strong turnout in that region of the state could do the same again in the general election.

(Want a daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Nationally, Obama has been leading McCain every day for more than a month in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. He also has a healthy lead in the Electoral College projections.

With release of this poll, Indiana moves from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Today, Montana also has moved from McCain's column to Toss-Up status.

In Indiana, McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, Obama by 49%.

McCain leads among those who regularly attend church while Obama leads among those who rarely or never attend services.

Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among those who consider the economy to be the top issue (see full demographic crosstabs.)

Not surprisingly, the economy is the top issue of the election for 50% of Indiana voters, with no other issue coming close. Voters in Indiana trust McCain more on this issue by a 48% to 45% margin.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Indiana’s 11 Electoral College votes this fall.

 

Battleground state polls released Monday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”

In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-160. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-160.

Other new polls show McCain ahead in Alaska, Arkansas, Indiana, Montana and Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in New Mexico, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Indiana Toss-Up

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

49%

49%

46%

Obama (D)

46%

45%

47%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 28-29, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Indiana Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/29/2008

49%

46%

10/07/2008

50%

43%

09/18/2008

49%

47%

08/22/2008

46%

42%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Indiana

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

26%

37%

Somewhat Favorable

31%

12%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

14%

Very Unfavorable

23%

34%

Not Sure

2%

3%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.