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Georgia: McCain Up by Seven

John McCain now leads Barack Obama 50% to 43% in Georgia. That’s little changed from a month ago when McCain held a nine-point advantage. When “leaners” are included, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Peach State finds the Republican leading 53% to 44% (Premium Members can review full demographic crosstabs and other data).

The race in Georgia has remained relatively steady since March.

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, who served in Congress as part of Georgia’s Congressional delegation, picks up 3% of the vote initially. But when asked a follow-up question only 1% remain committed to the man some view as a potential spoiler for McCain’s hopes.

While both McCain and Obama earn roughly equal support from their own parties, McCain has a thirteen percentage point advantage among unaffiliated voters. McCain leads by twenty among men while the candidates are roughly even among women.

McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of Georgia’s voters and unfavorably by 39%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

George W. Bush won Georgia twice by double digits. Bill Clinton narrowly carried the state in 1992 but lost it to Bob Dole in 1996. Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a 80.0 % chance of winning Georgia’s fifteen Electoral College votes this fall. At the time this poll was released, Georgia was rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Twenty-two percent (22%) of Georgia voters say they would be more likely to vote for Obama if longtime former Georgia Senator San Nunn were chosen as his vice presidential running mate. The same number (22%) say that choice would make them less likely to vote for the democrat. Half of voters (49%) say the appointment would have no impact.

If Senator Saxby Chambliss is chosen as McCain’s VP, 22% say they would be more likely to vote for the GOP, while 25% say they would be less likely to do so. Chambliss is currently leading opponent Jim Martin in his bid for re-election in the United States Senate.

Most voters in Georgia (64%) favor drilling in offshore oil wells off the coast of Georgia, while 21% oppose the idea. Those figures are very similar to the national average.

While Republicans are strongly in favor of the proposal, Democrats are evenly divided. Over a third of voters in Georgia (34%) blame recent high gas prices on the Bush administration, while 27% blame Congress. Not surprisingly, there is a huge partisan divide when it comes to assigning blame.

George W. Bush won 58% of the Georgia vote in Election 2004 but today just 40% say he is doing a good or an excellent job as President.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on August 14, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Georgia Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

52%

47%

10/22/2008

51%

46%

10/07/2008

54%

45%

09/16/2008

54%

43%

08/14/2008

50%

43%

07/17/2008

48%

39%

06/26/2008

53%

43%

06/04/2008

51%

41%

05/06/2008

53%

39%

03/20/2008

53%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Georgia

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

41%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

16%

8%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

10%

Very Unfavorable

26%

39%

Not Sure

0%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.