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Georgia: McCain 51%, Obama 41%

John McCain still holds a substantial lead over Barack Obama in Georgia, according to the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state since the Democrat clinched his party’s presidential nomination.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters in Georgia voters, generally considered a safe Republican state, favor McCain to 41% who support Obama, with 6% supporting another candidate and 2% undecided.

McCain is also far ahead in terms of voter favorability – with 61% holding a favorable view of him as opposed to 45% who feel that way about Obama.

While McCain’s unfavorables total 37%, over half of Georgia voters (54%) view Obama at least somewhat unfavorably.

George W. Bush won the state twice by double digits. Bill Clinton narrowly carried Georgia in 1992 but lost it to Bob Dole in 1996.

The Republican contender held sizable leads over both of his potential Democratic opponents in the Peach State in last month’s Rasmussen Reports survey. McCain led Obama 53% to 39% and Hillary Clinton by 48% to 37% at that time.

But the new survey, taken within a day after Obama tallied enough delegates to capture his party’s nomination, shows only a slight tightening in the race so far.

Georgia’s large African-American population is expected to benefit Obama. Less clear is what impact, if any, might be noted by the Libertarian Party’s nomination of former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr as its presidential nominee and a potential outlet for conservative unhappiness with McCain.

In the new survey, men overwhelmingly favor McCain (56%) to Obama (36%). Women voters give McCain a statistically insignificant edge – 47% to 46%.

The age of the voter is a clear determinant which candidate he or she supports. In the 18-29 age category, for example. Obama leads his Republican rival 60% to 36%, but the levels of support shift as the voters get older. For voters 65 and older, McCain, who himself is 71, tops Obama 57% to 31%.

Given Georgia’s conservative political profile and the large number of military bases in the state, voters are perhaps surprisingly conflicted about the war in Iraq, with an equal number (46%) in favor of both winning the war and bringing the troops home in four years. Only one state—Alabama—features a majority of voters who say that winning the War is more important.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) believe that the United States is likely to win the war in Iraq with McCain as president. Only 23% believe that will happen if Obama is elected.

By contrast, Obama has a substantial edge (62% to 46%) over McCain when voters were asked whether the candidates are likely to bring the troops home during his first term in the White House.

Like most American voters Georgians are highly critical of the federal government. Sixty-eight percent (68%) believe the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Only 15% disagree.

Similarly, 73 percent of Georgia voters do not believe the federal government represents the will of the people. Again, 15% disagree.

Yet, despite this skepticism, 81% at least somewhat confident that their votes will be accurately counted and the appropriate winners will be declared. Sixty percent (60%) believe U.S. elections are fair, but 24% do not agree.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Georgia’s fifteen Electoral College votes this fall. At the time this poll was released, Georgia was rated as “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

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Georgia
Likely Republican

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

52%

52%

51%

Obama (D)

47%

46%

44%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on June 4, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Georgia Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/30/2008

52%

47%

10/22/2008

51%

46%

10/07/2008

54%

45%

09/16/2008

54%

43%

08/14/2008

50%

43%

07/17/2008

48%

39%

06/26/2008

53%

43%

06/04/2008

51%

41%

05/06/2008

53%

39%

03/20/2008

53%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Georgia

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

41%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

16%

8%

Somewhat Unfavorable

17%

10%

Very Unfavorable

26%

39%

Not Sure

0%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.