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FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling - October 5, 2008

Overview

Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week shows that Barack Obama has made significant gains in Colorado, Missouri and Florida. In Ohio and Virginia, there was little change from the week before.

All five of these states were won by George W. Bush and the Republicans four years ago. Obama now holds at least a modest edge in four of the five states and is essentially even in Ohio.

Obama now leads by seven points, 52% to 45% in Florida. A week ago the candidates were tied in the Sunshine State. Two weeks ago, McCain was up five.

In Colorado, Obama now holds a six-point advantage, 51% to 45%. Last week, Obama had a one-point edge in the state and two weeks ago McCain was narrowly ahead.

In Missouri, it’s Obama 50% McCain 47%. In mid-September, a Rasmussen Reports poll had found McCain up by five in the Show-Me State.

Obama continues to hold a narrow advantage in Virginia, 50% to 48%. That’s virtually unchanged from last week. However, last week was the first time Obama had moved ahead in this state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1964.

Ohio is the only state where McCain has any sort of advantage. But a 48% to 47% lead is meaningless in a poll with a three percentage point margin of sampling error.

Looking at all of the data collected over the past few weeks, these state-by-state results confirm data from national trends found in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Obama has been gaining steadily ever since Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September and made visible the economic problems that have dominated the news ever since.

Before Lehman Brothers collapsed, McCain was up three percentage points nationally. Today, Obama has an eight-point advantage nationally.

A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

· The number who would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama ranges from 44% to 47%. For McCain, the comparable numbers range from 40% to 42%. Obama has the advantage on this measure in all five states.

· In all five states, more voters trust Obama than McCain on economic issues. Economic issues remain far and away the top priority.

· Obama has gained significant ground in recent weeks on the question of who voters trust. The two candidates are even in three states on this question and McCain has only a very modest edge in the other two. In all four states where this question was asked last week, the numbers became at least a bit more favorable this week.

· The number who said they would be comfortable with Delaware Senator Joe Biden as Vice President increased in all three states where the question was asked for a second time.

· There was little change in the number who would be comfortable with Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as Vice President.

· When asked which candidate they would like to get advice from on the toughest decision of their life, a narrow plurality chose McCain in all five states. But, as with other questions in the survey, the trend is moving in Obama’s direction.

Things to Look For

The big question this week is whether John McCain can do anything to fundamentally alter the dynamics of the campaign. It is not clear what could accomplish that objective, but this week’s Presidential Debate will provide the underdog with a forum.

Selected Data

 

CO

FL

MO

OH

VA

Obama

51% (49%)

52% (47%)

50% (46%)

47% (47%)

50% (50%)

McCain

45% (48%)

45% (47%)

47% (51%)

48% (48%)

48% (47%)

Barr

1% (0%)

0% (0%)

1%

1% (0%)

1% (0%)

Nader

1% (1%)

1% (1%)

1%

1% (0%)

0% (1%)

McKinney

1% (0%)

0% (0)%

0%

0% (0%)

0% (1%)

Not Sure

2% (2%)

2% (5%)

2%

3% (4%)

1% (1%)

NOTE: Numbers in parentheses indicate results from September 28 surveys for all states but Missouri. Numbers in parentheses for Missouri indicate results from a September 11 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports.

State

Cand.

Total

GOP

Dem

Other

CO

Obama

51%

12%

92%

53%

 

McCain

45%

87%

7%

39%

           

FL

Obama

52%

17%

87%

59%

 

McCain

45%

87%

12%

32%

           

MO

Obama

50%

6%

88%

51%

 

McCain

47%

93%

11%

40%

           

OH

Obama

47%

10%

85%

42%

 

McCain

48%

90%

12%

44%

           

VA

Obama

50%

5%

95%

48%

 

McCain

48%

95%

5%

45%

Background

Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on October 5, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia. A total of 1,000 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).

The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error.

In four of the five states—Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia—Rasmussen Reports had conducted similar surveys for Fox News on September 28 and on several earlier dates.

National

Latest RR Poll

With Leaners

Electoral College

Fav Rating

Ras Mkts

McCain (R)

45%

46%

163

55%

Obama (D)

50%

52%

260

56%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205





About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.