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McCain Only Ahead By One Now in Florida

The race for Florida’s Electoral College votes is closer now than it was just a few days ago. Consistent with a pattern found in national polls and in several other state polls, John McCain has lost ground in the Sunshine State, but support for Barack Obama hasn’t increased.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain on top 48% to 47% (see crosstabs). The previous poll, conducted Sunday night, showed McCain on top 51% to 46%.

Both candidates are now viewed favorably by 55% of Florida voters. That’s unchanged for McCain but a five-point improvement for Obama.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Obama voters say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate, an attitude shared by 67% of McCain supporters.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of McCain voters say they are primarily voting against Obama while 19% of the Democrat’s voters are primarily voting against McCain.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

The survey was conducted Wednesday night, the night that President Bush addressed the nation on the economic crisis. National surveys conducted in recent days show that opposition to the Administration’s bailout plan has been growing and that most Americans are now worried the federal government will do too much rather than too little.

A separate Rasmussen national poll released last week found that most voters are not yet convinced that either candidate can handle the economic crisis.

McCain leads 78% to 19% among politically conservative Florida voters while Obama leads 89% to 8% among political liberals. Obama also holds a 17-point advantage among self-described political moderates while McCain benefits from the fact that there are more conservative voters than liberals. Premium Members can review full demographic crosstabs for all state polls and get the first look at all Rasmussen Reports polling data. Learn More.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes in November. At the time this poll was released, Florida was rated as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 28% of Florida voters, down from 34% just a few days ago. Fifty-four percent (54%) now say the President is doing a poor job.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist is rated good or excellent by 54% of voters, versus only 17% say he is doing a poor job.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Florida

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

McCain (R)

50%

49%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 24, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Florida Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/19/2008

49%

48%

10/12/2008

46%

51%

10/08/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

45%

52%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

09/24/2008

48%

47%

09/21/2008

51%

46%

09/14/2008

49%

44%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

08/18/2008

46%

43%

07/22/2008

45%

46%

06/26/2008

48%

41%

06/18/2008

47%

39%

05/19/2008

50%

40%

04/10/2008

53%

38%

03/12/2008

47%

43%

02/16/2008

53%

37%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Florida

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

12%

Very Unfavorable

20%

36%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.