If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

Florida: McCain Still Ahead by Five

John McCain has held onto a five-point lead over Barack Obama in Florida for the second straight week. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain on top 51% to 46%.

McCain has led in nine out of the 11 polls conducted this year. Three weeks ago the candidates were tied at 48% each.

Both nationally and in Florida, polling suggests the race for the White House today is very similar to the final results for Election 2004. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows McCain with a very modest lead nationally, and his five-point edge in Florida matches President Bush’s margin of victory in the state four years ago.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel will jointly release a series of battleground state polls every Monday night at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. Other polls released tonight are from Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. See overview of all polling released this week.

Rasmussen Reports will release other state polling on the presidential race daily at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll follows the race on a national basis and is updated every morning at 9:30 Eastern. (Sign up for a free daily e-mail update).

McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of Florida voters and unfavorably by 45%. Obama’s numbers are 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable.

The GOP nominee has a solid 56% to 40% edge among unaffiliated voters in the Sunshine State. He also leads 53% to 44% among men and 51% to 47% among women.

Voters trust McCain more than his opponent by a 52% to 43% margin. However, while over a third (34%) says they would be extremely comfortable with Obama as president, just 28% say that of McCain. Still, more voters (45%) are not at all comfortable with Obama in the White House as opposed to just 34% who feel that way about the Republican.

As for their running mates, 29% say they would be extremely comfortable with Democrat Joseph Biden as vice president, and 32% say that of Republican Sarah Palin. While 42% say they would not be at all comfortable with Palin as vice president, 45% say that of Biden.

As in many other states, voters are evenly divided over who they trust more on the struggling economy. In Florida, 48% say they trust McCain more, while 47% say they trust Obama more. A separate Rasmussen national poll released last week found that most voters are not yet convinced that either candidate can handle the economic crisis.

On national security and the War on Terror, voters in Florida trust McCain more by a 53% to 44% margin, an issue the GOP nominee usually performs well on.

If faced with life’s toughest decision, 52% of voters say they would ask McCain for advice, while 40% would turn to Obama.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes in November. At the time this poll was released, Florida was rated as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Premium Members can review full demographic crosstabs for all state polls and get the first look at all Rasmussen Reports polling data. Learn More.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 34% of Florida voters, while 50% say the president is doing a poor job.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist is rated good or excellent by 53% of voters, versus only 16% say he is doing a poor job.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Florida

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

McCain (R)

50%

49%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Florida Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/19/2008

49%

48%

10/12/2008

46%

51%

10/08/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

45%

52%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

09/24/2008

48%

47%

09/21/2008

51%

46%

09/14/2008

49%

44%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

08/18/2008

46%

43%

07/22/2008

45%

46%

06/26/2008

48%

41%

06/18/2008

47%

39%

05/19/2008

50%

40%

04/10/2008

53%

38%

03/12/2008

47%

43%

02/16/2008

53%

37%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Florida

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

12%

Very Unfavorable

20%

36%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.