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Election 2008: Florida Presidential Election
McCain 50%, Obama 49% in Florida

Florida’s neck-and-neck down to the wire in the last Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state prior to Election Day.

John McCain leads Barack Obama by a statistically insignificant single percentage point, 50% to 49%. One percent of voters are still undecided.

In the three previous weeks, the lead has changed each time. Just one week ago, Obama was ahead by four points. The week before that it was McCain ahead by one. But this is the first time McCain has made it into the 50s since the middle of September.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of those who have already voted cast their ballots for Obama, 44% for McCain. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may cast their ballot before tomorrow.

Florida has been carried by the Republican candidates in eight of the last 10 presidential elections, including in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner.

Like the other five battleground states that Fox News/Rasmussen Reports releases final numbers on today – Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, Florida went for Bush in 2004. McCain probably needs all six states to win the White House.

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has shown Obama with support from 50% to 52% of voters every single day for 39 consecutive days.

McCain now has a nine-point lead among unaffiliated voters in Florida. A week ago he trailed Obama by 12 points among these voters. McCain leads by five among men, with women voters closely divided between the two.

The Republican leads by large margins among Protestants and Evangelical Christians but has only four-point lead among Catholics in the state. Obama has a 31-point lead among members of other faiths.

McCain also leads among older voters and those earning more than $60,000 per year.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a % chance of taking Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes this year. With release of this poll, Florida shifts back to “Toss-Up” from “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.

Sixty percent (60%) of Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, 39% an unfavorable view. Obama is regarded favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 48%. These numbers represent a slight improvement for McCain, a modest downswing for Obama.

Florida voters trust McCain more than Obama 53% to 45%. Fifty-one percent (51%) would seek advice from McCain if faced with the toughest decision of their lives while 46% who would talk to Obama.

Nearly half (48%) say the economy is the number one issue in the election, while 22% rate national security that way. Florida voters are evenly divided over which candidate they trust more on the economy, but McCain has a 55%-to-43% edge in voter trust on national security.

For voters who say the economy is most important, Obama is trusted more 67% to 31%. For those who say national security is most important, McCain is trusted more 83% to 15%.

Forty-six percent would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House, but 44% would be not at all comfortable. Forty-eight percent (48%) would be similarly comfortable with McCain as president, while 32% say they wouldn’t be comfortable with that at all.

Thirty-two percent (32%) think the most important quality of a candidate in this election is their ability to being about needed change. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are looking for a candidate with the right experience, while 22% prefer a candidate who shares their values. Just 13% put the most emphasis on a candidate who cares about people like them.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Florida voters say they are Extremely Interested in the presidential election. Forty-two percent (42%) say they are Very Likely to take an exit poll, but this group includes 52% of likely Obama voters compared to 33% of those who plan to vote for McCain.

Rasmussen Reports today also released final results from New Jersey.

In the Electoral College projections, Rasmussen Reports now shows Obama leading 260 to 160. When states that are leaning in one way or the otherare included, Obama leads 313 to 160. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the White House (Predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year).

 

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey , New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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Florida

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

McCain (R)

50%

49%

Obama (D)

49%

49%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports November 2, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Florida Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

50%

49%

10/26/2008

47%

51%

10/19/2008

49%

48%

10/12/2008

46%

51%

10/08/2008

47%

50%

10/05/2008

45%

52%

09/28/2008

47%

47%

09/24/2008

48%

47%

09/21/2008

51%

46%

09/14/2008

49%

44%

09/07/2008

48%

48%

08/18/2008

46%

43%

07/22/2008

45%

46%

06/26/2008

48%

41%

06/18/2008

47%

39%

05/19/2008

50%

40%

04/10/2008

53%

38%

03/12/2008

47%

43%

02/16/2008

53%

37%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Florida

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

9%

Somewhat Unfavorable

19%

12%

Very Unfavorable

20%

36%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.