If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

Demographic Notes - 2008 Presidential Race

November 3, 2008: Now Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 53%. Obama gets positive reviews from 88% of Democrats and 56% of unaffiliated voters. Ninety percent (90%) of Republicans and 55% of unaffiliateds say the same about McCain.

However, there is a definite enthusiasm gap when it comes to the candidates. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion. Only 55% of Republicans are that upbeat about McCain.

Obama leads by ten among women but trails by two among men.

The economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 for 46% of voters. Just 20% see national security as the top priority. The importance of the economic issue is highlighted by the fact that McCain was leading by three points in mid-September just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and made public the depth of Wall Street’s problems. Shortly after that, Obama moved ahead and has enjoyed a stable lead that has lasted into the final weekend of Election 2008.

Among those who consider the economy most important, Obama leads 66% to 31%.

Among those who say that national security issues are the top priority, McCain leads 75% to 22%.

October 29, 2008: Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting.

Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support had stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain was in the 44% to 46% range. It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month.

October 25, 2008: While the overall levels of support have remained stable over the past month, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. Nine percent (9%) lean one way or the other but could change their mind. The remaining three percent (3%) are either committed to a third party candidate or remain undecided.

Thirty days ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. Thirty-nine percent (39%) said the same about McCain.

October 24, 2008: Obama leads by sixteen points among women, including a three-point advantage among white women. McCain leads by three among men. Obama now is supported by twelve percent (12%) of Republicans while McCain gets the vote from 10% of Democrats.

Thirty-six percent (36%) say they have already voted or plan to vote early this year. That figure includes 37% of Obama supporters and 35% of those for McCain. An amazing 49% of African-American voters say they will be voting early. Voters not affiliated with either major party are far less likely to vote early than partisans.

Today’s results mark the 29th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points (see trends).

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 53% say the same about John McCain. Those figures include 41% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 26% who are that enthusiastic about McCain (see trends). Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama. Just 54% of Republicans have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain.

Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters say they are certain to vote for Obama and will not change their mind before Election Day. Forty-one percent (41%) are equally certain of their support for McCain. Two percent (2%) are committed to voting for a third party candidate.

McCain leads by just two percentage points among Investors while trailing badly among those who do not invest. Investors are generally more supportive of Republican candidates.

October 20, 2008: Obama has been at the 50% level of support for seven of the past eight days while McCain has been at 45% or 46% on each of those days. During that time frame, Obama’s lead has been in the four to six point range every day.

This suggests that the race may be tightening a bit. Prior to the past week, Obama had generally enjoyed a five to eight point advantage for several weeks.

McCain has regained his advantage among male voters, leading by five. However, Obama leads by eleven among women.

Still, from a broader perspective, the race remains very stable. Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day for twenty-five straight days while McCain’s total has been between 44% and 46% on every one of those days (see trends).

October 15, 2008: While the surface numbers have remained the same, there are details beneath the surface that offer encouragement for both campaigns.

For Obama, 53% of voters now reject the notion that he’s too inexperienced to be President. That’s up five percentage points over the past two weeks and matches the number who held that view immediately following the Democratic National Convention.

For McCain, the encouraging news comes from core supporters—those who are certain how they will vote and that they will not change their mind. Just 42% are certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. That two-point gap is much closer than the overall numbers. It’s also much closer than the 45% to 38% advantage among core supporters enjoyed by Obama heading into the second Presidential Debate last week.

Overall, 12% of voters remain persuadables who favor one candidate or the other but could change their mind. Those, plus the 3% who remain undecided, are the target audience for both candidates in tonight’s debate.

Fifty percent (50%) of these target voters say the economy is the top issue of Election 2008. That is similar to the overall perceptions of voters. However, the persuadables have far less interest than other voters in national security matters. In fact, 13% say that cultural issues are their highest priority, 13% name fiscal issues as number one and 11% see national security as most important. Only 5% of persuadables are most interested in domestic issues such as health care and social security.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of persuadables are unaffiliated with either major political party. Thirty percent (30%) are Democrats and 18% Republican.

Just 29% of the persuadable voters are following the Presidential race closely on a daily basis

October 14, 2008: Obama and McCain are now running even among men, but Obama has an eleven point advantage among women.

October 13, 2008: Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 51%. For McCain, that figure in unchanged since yesterday and represents his lowest favorability rating since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

A closer look a these numbers suggests an even larger advantage for Obama—39% of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic nominee while 32% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. The comparable numbers for McCain are 23% Very Favorable and 26% Very Unfavorable.

Just 48% of Republicans have a Very Favorable opinion of their party’s nominee. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Democrats are that enthusiastic about Obama.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say that economic issues such as jobs and economic growth are the most important voting issue this year. Eighteen percent (18% consider national security issues such as the War with Iraq and the War on Terror as the highest priority. Eleven percent (11%) are most interested in domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care, 9% name fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending, and 7% cite cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion.

Republicans are fairly evenly divided as to whether economic issues or national security is most important. Democrats overwhelming are focused on the economy while national security ranks third on their list behind both the economy and other domestic issues.

October 12, 2008: Obama leads by fourteen percentage points among women while McCain leads by two among men. Both men lead by an 86% to 12% margin among members of their own party while Obama holds an eight point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

October 5, 2008: Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

One way of understanding the difficult challenge now facing McCain is to consider the relatively small group of persuadable voters who could still change their mind. The Republican hopeful would have to win nearly 80% of those votes to pull ahead in the race. That’s especially challenging because most of those voters are currently leaning towards Obama. In other words, while the race is not over, McCain needs a significant--game-changing—event to win the White House. Simply doing what he’s been doing a little better will not be enough.

There’s no mystery as to why the race has moved in Obama’s direction--it’s the economy. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and made visible Wall Street’s problems, 24% of voters said the nation was heading in the right direction. Since then, even that relatively low number has fallen sharply and is now in single digits for the first time ever. Today, just 9% of voters now say that the United States is heading in the right direction. Eighty-eight percent (88%) disagree and say the nation has gotten off on the wrong track.

At the same time that the number who say the nation is heading in the right direction has fallen, Obama’s support has steadily increased. In fact, his level of support has not fallen by even a single point on a single day for any of the twenty-four days dating back to September 12. He was supported by 46% of voters on September 12 and 13 before inching up to 47% for four days. Then, he was at 48% for six days and 49% for two days. Obama hit the 50% mark on September 26 and stayed there for four days before earning 51% support for each of the past six days.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters now trust Obama more than McCain on the economy while 42% hold the opposite view. Given the importance of the economic issues in Election 2008, it’s not a coincidence that these numbers so closely mirror the overall voter preferences in the tracking poll.

October 3, 2008: Nationally, the number of voters who believe the country is heading in the right direction has fallen to 10%. That’s down dramatically from the already low level of 24% just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the recent Wall Street debacle. Eighty-six percent (86%) now say that the nation has gotten off on the wrong track.

October 2, 2008: Forty-two percent (42%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and say they will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Fifteen percent (15%) express a preference for one of the candidates but could still change their mind. Just over 1% remain committed to a third-party candidate while 3% remain undecided.

Obama leads 63% to 32% among voters who name the economy as the top voting issue. McCain lead 74% to 24% among those who say that national security is the highest priority. Fifty percent (50%) of voters say the economy is most important while just 19% see national security that way.

October 1, 2008: Obama leads among Democrats 87% to 11% while McCain leads among Republicans by an identical margin. For much of the year, McCain was able to count on a more unified party than Obama, but that advantage has disappeared. Obama benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation and he also holds a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

September 29, 2008: Obama leads by fifteen points among women but trails by six among men. Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago. Obama is now supported by 12% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats. For most of the year, McCain enjoyed more crossover support than Obama.

September 21, 2008: The underlying closeness of the race is highlighted by the fact that the candidates have been within three points of each other for 50 of the last 55 days. The only exceptions were five days around the Democratic National Convention where Obama opened a four-to-six point lead. During those 55 days, they’ve been within two points of each other 41 times and the gap has been one point or less 28 times.

Still, while the race has consistently been close, there have been identifiable trends. For most of August, Obama held a very slight one or two point lead in the tracking poll. He expanded that lead to six points with a solid convention bounce but then McCain returned the favor with a convention bounce of his own. McCain’s advantage peaked at three points last weekend before the Wall Street roller coaster ride of the past week began a drift back in Obama’s direction.

With the race so close, the debates scheduled to begin this Friday night could be more significant than usual. That’s especially true since 21% of voters say they are either uncommitted or could change their mind before voting.

September 17, 2008: McCain leads 58% to 38% among those who regularly shop at Wal-Mart while Obama leads 61% to 36% among those who don’t frequent the retail giant. Among all voters, Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 a year while McCain leads among those with higher earnings. Among white voters, Obama has the edge only among those who earn less than $20,000 a year and his advantage among those lower income white voters is just four percentage points.

September 14, 2008: McCain is supported by 90% of Republicans and has a six-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama.

September 12, 2008: McCain leads by fourteen points among men while Obama holds an eight point advantage among women. Obama has the edge among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters.

September 6, 2008: Most of McCain’s gains in recent days have come among women voters. Obama still leads 51% to 44% among women, but that seven-point edge is just half the fourteen point lead he enjoyed at the height of his convention bounce. McCain leads by three among men, little changed in recent days.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 57% (see trends). McCain earns favorable reviews from 91% of Republicans while Obama is viewed favorably by 87% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain’s favorable ratings are at 64%, Obama’s at 54%.

September 3, 2008: Obama currently leads McCain by fourteen points among women but trails by four among men. Obama does better among those who would prefer a glass of wine than he does with beer drinkers. McCain has a huge lead among gun owners while Obama leads among households without a gun.

September 2, 2008: Obama has strengthened his support among Democrats and now attracts the vote from 85% of those within his party. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans support McCain.

August 30, 2008: Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men.

August 26, 2008: Obama is supported by 78% of Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans. The GOP hopeful also has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters.

August 14, 2008: Obama leads among voters who make less than $40,000 a year or more than $100,000 annually. McCain leads above those in between. Among Investors, McCain leads 50% to 45% while Obama leads among non-Investors 53% to 40%.

August 12, 2008: Obama is supported by 77% of Democrats while McCain earns the vote from 85% of Republicans. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 55%. Just 19% believe the nation is generally heading in the right direction while 76% disagree and say the United States has gotten off on the wrong track. Ninety percent (90%) of Democrats say the nation is on the wrong track along with 59% of Republicans and 76% of those not affiliated with either major party.

August 10, 2008: Eighty percent (80%) of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama while 87% of Republicans say they’ll vote for McCain. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

August 9, 2008: McCain leads by nineteen points among White Men and by eight points among White Women. Obama leads 94% to 5% among African-American voters and by twenty-one points among Hispanic voters.

August 7, 2008: If the race for the White House remains this close, the final decision may be rest in the hands of voters who are not yet paying attention to the campaign. Each night, Rasmussen Reports asks survey participants to let us know how closely they are following the election using a 9-point scale. People answering “9” say they are following the race “on a daily basis.”

Forty-two percent (42%) of McCain supporters say they’re following the race that closely along with 39% of Obama supporters and 35% of those who will vote for a third-party candidate. However, among the undecided voters, just 19% say they’re paying that much attention. On that nine-point scale, most undecided voters say their interest in the campaign is a “6” or less.

The average response for both a McCain or an Obama supporter is 7.4. For those supporting a third party candidate, the average level of interest is a 6.6. For the undecided voters, that figure is even lower--6.2.

August 4, 2008: McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters now see Obama as politically liberal while 65% see McCain as politically conservative. Among liberals, 71% see Obama as one of them, but just 18% of liberals see Obama as Very Liberal. Among conservatives, 71% say McCain is also a conservative, including 38% who say he is Very Conservative. Thirty-five percent (35%) of politically moderate voters say that McCain is politically moderate and 33% say the same of Obama. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats see McCain as conservative while 69% of Republicans see Obama as liberal.

August 2, 2008: McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain earns positive reviews from 86% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 82% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 60% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 50%.

July 30, 2008: In the race for the White House, there are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters as there were four years ago in late July. While much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans. Full crosstabs and a demographic profile of the uncommitted voters are available for Premium Members.

July 29, 2008: Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 54% to 40% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans.

July 25, 2008: Voters who have served in the U.S. military favor John McCain over Barack Obama by a 56% to 37% margin. Voters with no military service favor Obama 50% to 43%.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of military veterans have a favorable opinion of McCain while 46% say the same about Obama. Thirty-seven percent (37%) have an unfavorable opinion of McCain while 51% offer an unfavorable opinion of Obama.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of veterans have a Very Favorable opinion of the GOP candidate while 17% hold a Very Unfavorable view. The numbers for his Democratic opponent are 27% Very Favorable and 36% Very Unfavorable.

Veterans also prefer Republicans by 10 percentage points on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Those without military experience favor Democrats by a 48% to 32% margin. Overall, Democrats lead by nine percentage points on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

July 21, 2008: McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain is currently supported by 86% of Republicans and holds a modest--four percentage point—lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for July 21 shows Barack Obama attracting 42% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. That’s the lowest level of support measured for Obama since he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination on June 3. Obama’s support peaked at 48% with data released on June 8, 9, and 10. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has remained steady in the 40% to 42% range (he’s had just one day a point below that range and two days a point above it).

When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 45%. With leaners, Obama reached 50% support in mid-June and was at 48% or 49% every day from June 13 until July 10. Since then, he has reached the 48% level just once while polling consistently at 46% or 47%.

July 20, 2008: Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% of voters. Obama is clearly the defining candidate of the race and energizes both sides of the political divide more than McCain. The presumptive Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 54% of Democrats and Very Unfavorably by 51% of Republicans. McCain generates less passion and less intense opposition. He is viewed Very Favorably by 35% of Republicans and Very Unfavorably by 29% of Democrats.

Among unaffiliated voters, 10% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 24% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers among unaffiliated voters are 12% Very Favorable and 15% Very Unfavorable.

July 19, 2008: McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 55%. Obama is clearly the defining candidate of the race and energizes both sides of the political divide more than McCain. The presumptive Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 53% of Democrats and Very Unfavorably by 51% of Republicans. McCain generates less passion and less intense opposition. He is viewed Very Favorably by 38% of Republicans and Very Unfavorably by 31% of Democrats.

Among unaffiliated voters, 20% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 24% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers among unaffiliated voters are 14% Very Favorable and 14% Very Unfavorable.

July 18, 2008: Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

July 17, 2008: McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans and holds an eleven-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. Obama leads among voters under 30 while McCain has the edge among those over 65. The two candidates are even among voters aged 30-64. Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind before November. Another 34% are that certain about voting for McCain. That leaves 32% open to changing their mind before voting and creates a potential for either candidate to open a significant lead in the fall.

July 16, 2008: Currently, McCain leads by a 60% to 26% margin among Evangelical Christians and holds a very slight edge over Obama among other Protestant voters and Catholic voters. Obama holds a thirty-five point advantage among all other voters. Most voters who attend Church at least weekly support McCain and most who rarely or never attend services prefer Obama.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. McCain is viewed favorably by 71% of Evangelical Christians, 59% of other Protestant voters, and 64% of Catholic voters. Obama earns favorable reviews from 39% of Evangelical Christians, 53% of other Protestant voters, and 51% of Catholic voters. Among all other voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 67%, McCain by 38%.

July 13, 2008: Just 15% of voters say the nation is heading in the right direction while 79% say it has gotten off on the wrong track. McCain is supported by 85% of those who say the country is heading in the right direction. Among the much larger number who say the country has gotten off on the wrong track, Obama leads 54% to 38%.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008 and these voters prefer Obama by a sixteen point margin. Twenty-three percent (23%) name national security issues as their highest priority. They favor McCain by a two-to-one margin. Domestic issues such as Social Security and Health Care are most important for 12%, fiscal issues for 8%, and cultural issues for 5%. Obama leads by a wide margin among those who call cultural issues most important while McCain leads by similarly wide margins among those who consider fiscal or cultural issues tops.

July 12, 2008: McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Obama receives unfavorable reviews from 44% of voters while McCain is viewed unfavorably by 41%. McCain earns favorable ratings from 32% of Democrats while Obama is viewed favorably by 22% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 58%, Obama by 54%.

Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain--29% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable. Among unaffiliated voters, 18% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 16% say the same about McCain.

July 7, 2008: Obama leads by twelve percentage points among women, but trails by three among men. Among White Women, McCain leads by just four percentage points. That’s a much smaller advantage among White Women than George W. Bush enjoyed four years ago.

Overall, McCain leads by nine among White Voters. Obama leads 94% to 3% among African-American voters and 61% to 30% among Hispanic voters.

July 5, 2008: An analysis of Rasmussen Reports data from 15,000 telephone interviews shows that libertarian voters favor Obama over McCain.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of the nation’s voters are both fiscally and socially conservative. Twenty percent (20%) are both fiscally and socially moderate. Fifteen percent (15%) of all voters are fiscally moderate and socially liberal. Two groups of voters each include 10% of the voting population—those who are fiscally conservative and socially moderate along with those who are fiscally moderate and socially conservative. Nine percent (9%) are fiscally and socially liberal.

June 28, 2008: Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind. Thirty-three percent (33%) are just as certain they will vote for McCain. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans are certain they will vote for McCain and 68% of Democrats say they same about Obama. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% are certain to vote for McCain, 25% for Obama and 45% say they could change their mind before Election Day. Part of the reason for this extraordinary fluidity is that the candidates are relatively unknown. Another factor is that the issue array is not as settled as in recent elections.

June 27, 2008: Rasmussen Reports polling shows the race has remained very stable for several weeks. Without leaners, Obama’s support has stayed between 45% and 47% for sixteen straight days. With leaners, he has stayed between 48% and 50% for twenty-two straight days.

As for McCain, his support has been at 40% or 41% on twenty of the last twenty-three days. Twice, he inched up a point above that range and once he slipped a point below. With leaners, McCain’s support has stayed between 42% and 45% every day since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination .

June 25, 2008: Just 22% now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30% who held that view earlier. Forty-one percent (41%) continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced.

June 23, 2008: Currently, Obama and McCain are essentially even among men while the Democrat leads by twelve among women. McCain leads 49% to 42% among White Voters but trails 93% to 3% among African-American voters. Among voters who see economic issues as most important this year, Obama leads 59% to 32%. As for those who view national security issues as most important, McCain leads 59% to 37%.

June 22, 2008: New data released today shows that 63% of voters think McCain views U.S. society as generally fair and decent. Forty-five percent (45%) believe Obama holds that same view.

June 19, 2008-- McCain leads among voters who earn $40,000 to $75,000 a year. Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 annually and those whose income tops $75,000.

June 15, 2008-- Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 50% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 50% of women.

June 14, 2008-- Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 52% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 51% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%.

June 13, 2008-- Obama attracts 84% of political liberals while McCain is supported by 76% of conservatives. While there are more conservatives than liberals in the nation today, Obama also enjoys a twenty-eight point advantage over McCain among moderates.

Forty-five percent (45%) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 42% prefer Obama. Those figures have changed little over the past week. On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 49% have more trust in McCain while 41% prefer Obama. Those figures have moved a couple of points in Obama’s direction since he wrapped up the nomination

Fifty percent (50%) of voters say federal spending will increase if Obama is elected and 33% say the same will happen if McCain wins. Forty-five percent (45%) say taxes will increase if there is a President Obama. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say tax hikes will result from a McCain Administration.

Voters see a clear distinction between the two leading candidates on the issue of Iraq. Eighty-one percent (81%) say Obama is more interested in getting troops home from Iraq than finishing the mission. Seventy-four percent (74%) say that McCain is more interested in finishing the mission An earlier survey found that 52% of voters say getting the troops home is the higher priority.

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say McCain is a better leader than Obama while 38% hold the opposite view. When asked which candidate has personal values closer to their own, 43% name McCain and 42% say Obama.

June 12, 2008-- Obama currently leads by eleven points among women but trails by a single point among men (including leaners). Thirty-nine percent (39%) of women say they are certain they will vote for Obama in November. Another 10% say they would vote for him today but could change their mind, and 3% are leaning towards voting for Obama. For McCain those numbers are 30% certain, 8% who could change their mind, and 3% leaning towards voting for him.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of men are certain they will vote for McCain while 34% say the same about Obama.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 42%. The numbers for McCain are 54% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Among women, Obama is viewed favorably by 57%, McCain by 52%. Among men, McCain earns positive reviews from 56%, Obama from 54%.

Opinions are held more strongly about Obama--33% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 27% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable. As with the topline numbers, these ratings reflect a slight softening for Obama and little change for McCain.

June 10, 2008-- In December, before the Iowa caucuses launched Obama’s successful campaign for the nomination, the Illinois Senator was seen as politically liberal by 47% of voters nationwide. By April, that number had grown to 54%. Today, 67% see him as politically liberal including 36% who say he is Very Liberal.

A similar pattern is seen for John McCain. The presumptive Republican nominee was seen as politically conservative by 31% of all voters in December, by 41% in April, and by 57% today. Just 19% say he is Very Conservative.

These numbers reflect much more movement than was seen by the more established candidates running four years ago. While the number seeing Obama as liberal has already shifted by twenty percentage points, John Kerry’s numbers shifted just eight points in a roughly comparable time frame. Kerry was seen as politically liberal by 37% in January 2004 and by 45% in May 2004. By the end of Election 2004, 53% saw Kerry as politically liberal.

McCain’s numbers have shifted even more than Obama’s this year—twenty-six percentage points so far. Four years ago, President Bush was seen as politically conservative by 48% in January and 57% in May. That’s a shift of just nine points. By the end of Election 2004, 64% saw Bush as politically conservative.

It’s worth noting that both Bush and Kerry experienced as much of a shift from May to October as they did in the first part of the year. It is certainly reasonable to assume that more changes are ahead for McCain and Obama. Rasmussen Reports will be tracking this data on a weekly basis to monitor ongoing movement.

June 9, 2008-- Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats and now holds a very modest three-point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters. Both those figures reflect a significant improvement over the past week. McCain attracts 83% of Republicans Still, 30% of all voters either have no preference at this time or could change their vote before Election Day.

June 7, 2008-- Obama’s bounce is primarily the result of Democrats beginning to unify behind his candidacy. For the first time all year, Obama is supported by 80% of Democrats over McCain. In recent months, his support from Democrats has typically been in the high-60’s or low-70’s range.

McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds an eight-point lead among unaffiliated voters. The bad news for McCain is that there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans. Obama’s party now enjoys a ten-percentage point advantage in terms of party identification.

June 5, 2008--As the General Election season begins, Obama attracts 96% of the African-American vote while McCain holds a thirteen-point lead among White voters. Obama leads by nine among voters of other racial and ethnic backgrounds, primarily Latino voters (these figures are based upon the results including leaners).

Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among voters under 30 and holds a significant lead among 30-somethings. McCain has the edge among those 40 and older, attracting the votes from 50% of these voters.

McCain leads by ten percentage points among White Women. However, Obama has the edge among White Women Under 40 while McCain enjoys a substantial advantage among older White Women.

Government employees are essentially evenly divided between the two candidates. McCain has a 53% to 39% advantage among Entrepreneurs while Obama leads 50% to 41% among those who work for someone else in the Private Sector.

From a partisan perspective, McCain attracts 83% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. McCain has an eight-point advantage over Obama among unaffiliated voters. Keep in mind that many of this year’s unaffiliated voters were Republicans four-years ago. The number identifying with the GOP has declined from just under 37% in 2004 to 31% today. At the same time, many unaffiliated voters from four years ago, now consider themselves to be Democrats.

June 4, 2008--As the General Election season begins, Obama attracts 96% of the African-American vote while McCain holds a thirteen-point lead among White voters. Obama leads by nine among voters of other racial and ethnic backgrounds, primarily Latino voters (these figures are based upon the results including leaners).

Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among voters under 30 and holds a significant lead among 30-somethings. McCain has the edge among those 40 and older, attracting the votes from 50% of these voters.

McCain leads by ten percentage points among White Women. However, Obama has the edge among White Women Under 40 while McCain enjoys a substantial advantage among older White Women.

Government employees are essentially evenly divided between the two candidates. McCain has a 53% to 39% advantage among Entrepreneurs while Obama leads 50% to 41% among those who work for someone else in the Private Sector.

May 29, 2008--McCain leads 58% to 33% among Evangelical Christians and by six points among other Protestant voters. Consistent with results from many recent state polls, McCain does better among those who attend Church or other religious services on a regular basis. Obama is stronger among those who rarely or never attend services.

May 28, 2008-- McCain is supported by 83% of Republicans and 43% of unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 70% of Democrats and 40% of unaffiliated voters.

May 27, 2008 --Twenty-four percent (24%) of White Democrats nationwide currently say they’ll vote for the Republican candidate, John McCain.

May 24, 2008--In the race for the White House, McCain leads among those who closely follow traditional local media and among those who rarely or never rely upon local TV and newspapers. Obama lead among those whose use is in between.

Among those who watch local TV news every night or nearly every night, McCain leads 49% to 41%. Among those who read the local paper every day or nearly every day, McCain leads 48% to 42%. Among those who rarely or never turn on local TV news, McCain leads by six and he is up by twelve among those who rarely or never read a local newspaper.

Among those who occasionally watch local television news and those who watch a couple of times a week, Obama leads by five. Among those who occasionally read the local newspaper and those who read it a couple of times per week, Obama leads by four.

Part of this divergence undoubtedly results from the age difference in support for Obama and McCain. Obama leads among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters.

May 22, 2008--McCain’s edge can be traced directly to the fact that just 66% of Democrats say they will vote for Obama at this time. Twenty-three percent (23%) of all Democrats say that if the election were held today, they’d vote for McCain. Another 11% would opt for “some other candidate” or remain undecided. McCain, who wrapped up the GOP nomination more than two months ago, attracts 79% of Republican votes and holds a modest five point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

May 20, 2008--Rasmussen Reports regularly asks voters to identify themselves ideologically on both fiscal and social issues. The significance of this distinction is highlighted by the fact that just 11% of voters currently consider themselves fiscally liberal while 29% say they are liberal when it comes to social issues. An overview of how the nation’s voters break down along these lines was presented last fall.

May 19, 2008-- Not surprisingly, among voters who are both fiscally and socially liberal, Obama leads McCain 84% to 6%. Among those who are conservative on both scales, McCain leads Obama 80% to 9%. As for those who consider themselves moderate on both fiscal policy and social issues, Obama is favored 54% to 36%.

When the views of those who are fiscally moderate but socially liberal are measured, Obama comes out on top, 72% to 21%. As for those who are fiscally conservative but socially moderate, McCain leads 70% to 20%. The categories of voters mentioned in these two paragraphs cover 67% of the nation’s voters.

May 18, 2008--Among fiscal conservatives, McCain leads Obama 72% to 17%. McCain’s advantage among social conservatives is 68% to 21%. Among fiscal liberals, Obama leads McCain 79% to 10%. Among those who are liberal on social issues, Obama leads 73% to 20%.

McCain is viewed favorably by 68% of social conservatives and 72% of fiscal conservatives. He gets positive reviews from 28% of those who are liberal on social issues and 20% of fiscal issue liberals.

Obama is viewed favorably by 76% of voters who are liberal on social issues and 84% of those who are liberal on fiscal issues. He is also viewed favorably by 28% of social conservatives and 24% of fiscal conservatives.

May 17, 2008--McCain currently leads Obama 51% to 39% among married Americans but trails by more than twenty percentage points among those who are not. Among single women, Obama leads 59% to 27% while McCain leads by six among married women. McCain leads by eighteen points among married men but trails by seventeen among men who are not married.

Overall, McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide, Obama by 48%. That’s the second straight day Obama’s favorable rating has been below 50%. McCain’s is viewed favorably by 53% of married voters. Obama earns positive reviews from 62% of those who are not married.

May 16, 2008--During the past 30 days, the candidates have been within two percentage points of each other seventeen times, including each of the last seven days.

Obama currently leads McCain by three percentage points among women while trailing by four points among men.

Overall, McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide, Obama by 48%. That’s the first time in nearly two weeks that Obama’s favorable rating has slipped below 50%.McCain’s is viewed favorably by 53% of men and 48% of women. Obama earns positive reviews from 46% of men and 50% of women.

May 15, 2008--Obama is supported by 71% of Democrats, McCain by 80% of Republicans. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Obama currently holds a three-percentage point advantage. Obama and McCain are each viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide.
Obama is viewed favorably by 77% of liberal voters and 58% of moderate voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 68% of conservative voters and 47% of moderate voters. Among Very Conservative voters, just 57% have a favorable opinion of McCain while 81% of Very Liberal voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.

May 14, 2008--Obama leads by fifteen points among those who are not married while McCain has the lead among married voters. The marriage gap is particularly noticeable among women. McCain leads by nine percentage points among women who are married while Obama leads by twenty-three among women who are not married.
Among all voters nationwide, Obama is viewed favorably by 50%, McCain by 49%. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 56%, McCain by 45%.

May 13, 2008 --Obama has an eight-point advantage among unaffiliated voters but just 64% of White Democrats say they will vote for their party’s presumptive nominee. Twenty-five percent (25%) of White Democrats say they will vote for McCain while 10% are either undecided or prefer “some other candidate.”

Among all voters nationwide, Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, McCain by 49%. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 56%, McCain by 45%.

May 12, 2008 --Nationally, in the race for the White House, McCain leads by twelve percentage points among White Men and eleven points among White Women while Obama overwhelmingly attracts the African-American vote. Among Hispanic voters, Obama leads 58% to 35%.

Obama leads 59% to 35% among those who rarely, never, or occasionally attend Church or other religious services. Among those who attend services at least a couple of times a month, McCain leads 56% to 37%. McCain leads 69% to 28% among Evangelical.