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Connecticut: Obama Surges After Losing Ground Over Controversy

Barack Obama has opened a huge lead over John McCain in Connecticut. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds the Democrat ahead 52% to 35%.

This is the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the race since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and Hillary Clinton ended her campaign. A month ago, Obama led McCain by just three percentage points in the Nutmeg State. In March, Obama was up by a dozen points just before Pastor Jeremiah Wright became a campaign issue.

Since wrapping up the Democratic nomination, Obama’s numbers have improved in both state polls and nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Connecticut, Obama has a solid 58% to 30% lead among women, but just a five point advantage among men. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Obama leads 44% to 37%.

The Democratic nominee is viewed favorably by 62% of Connecticut voters, up from 54% last month. He is viewed unfavorably by 43%. McCain’s numbers are 54% favorable and 43% unfavorable, which have remained unchanged since the last poll.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Connecticut’s seven Electoral College votes. Democrats have won the state in four consecutive elections, the last three by double digits. Prior to that, the state voted for the GOP in five straight elections from 1972 to 1988. With release of this poll, Connecticut moves from “Likely Democratic” to “Safely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

More than one-third of Connecticut voters (36%) think Hillary Clinton should be Barack Obama’s running mate, while just over half (52%) disagree.

The survey also found that 32% believe McCain is too old to president and 41% believe Obama is too inexperienced for the job.

By a nearly two-to-one margin (61% to 33%), Connecticut voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the War. Those numbers are slightly more lopsided than those found on the national level.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters think drilling in offshore oil wells should be allowed in order to curb gas prices in the United States. Over a third of Connecticut voters (34%) disagree with this plan. Half of voters (50%) believe it to be likely that gas prices would go down as a result of offshore drilling, while 45% find this result to be unlikely. A separate survey found that 59% of Likely Voters nationwide are in favor of offshore drilling.

Just 24% of voters in Connecticut give President George W. Bush good or excellent ratings, while 57% say he is doing a poor job. Approval numbers for the president on the national level continue to hit record lows.

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Connecticut Likely Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

38%

39%

38%

Obama (D)

54%

53%

53%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 31, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Connecticut Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/14/2008

39%

56%

09/16/2008

41%

53%

07/31/2008

36%

51%

06/30/2008

35%

52%

05/29/2008

44%

47%

03/11/2008

38%

50%

Connecticut Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

05/29/2008

42%

48%

03/11/2008

44%

47%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Connecticut

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

22%

42%

Somewhat Favorable

31%

21%

Somewhat Unfavorable

23%

13%

Very Unfavorable

24%

22%

Not Sure

0%

2%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.