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Connecticut: Obama keeps double-digit lead over McCain 51% to 36%

Barack Obama continues to run far ahead of his Republican opponent John McCain in Connecticut, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Obama leads McCain 51% to 36%. A month ago, in the first survey since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Obama jumped to a 52% to 35% lead over McCain. Crosstabs with demographics are available for Premium Members.

Democrats have carried Connecticut in the last four presidential election cycles, the last three by double digits.

Nationally the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very close race for the White House. On Monday, McCain had a statistically insignificant single point edge, but it’s the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3.

Obama is viewed favorably by 61% of Connecticut voters, virtually identical to last month’s finding, and unfavorably by 38%. The latter is a five percentage point improvement from early July. McCain’s numbers are 51% favorable, compared to 54% last month, and 47% unfavorable, up from 43% in July.

McCain has the support of 70% of the state’s Republicans, with 23% of GOP voters backing Obama. Among Democrats, 80% support Obama and only 9% McCain. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided, with 41% for McCain and 40% for Obama.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Connecticut’s seven Electoral College votes. With release of this poll, Connecticut remains “Safely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

For 43% of Connecticut voters, economic issues are their primary concern this election year, compared to 23% who rate national security as first. This finding is common nationwide. In 2004 national security was the number one voter concern.

Forty-eight percent (48%) say lowering the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment, but nearly as many (45%) disagree. Almost half (49%) do not believe the United States has the best economy in the world, but 41% agree that most reporters make the economy seem worse than it really is.

Similarly, despite Obama’s substantial lead in the state, 67% say most reporters try to help the candidate they want to win with their coverage, and 47% say the media is trying to help the Democratic candidate this year. Only 9% say most reporters are trying to help McCain, and 28% believe the media offers unbiased coverage. Those figures are similar to the national average.

Echoing a trend that is being seen nationwide, 51% of Connecticut voters say the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror versus 23% who believe the terrorists are winning. While 58% do not believe Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, only 40% believe Afghanistan to be that front. Forty-nine percent (49%) say Afghanistan is a greater threat to U.S. national security, but 28% believe that of Iraq.

In Connecticut, President Bush’s job performance is rated good or excellent by 24% and poor by 57%. Both figures are identical to last month’s. Nationally, during the month of July, 33% approved of the way that Bush is performing, up a point from the all-time low reached in June.

Over half of Connecticut voters (59%) say Republican Governor M. Jodi Rell is doing a good or excellent job, with only 11% rating her performance as poor.

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Connecticut Likely Democratic

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Obama (D)




This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 31, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology

Connecticut Trends: McCain vs. Obama






















Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Connecticut




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About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.