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Obama Ahead By Four in Colorado

Barack Obama leads John McCain 50% to 46% in Colorado on the day the Democrat drew huge enthusiastic crowds in Denver and at Colorado State University.

A new Fox News/ Rasmussen Reports survey, taken Sunday night, shows Obama ahead by four points. A week ago the Democrat was up by five, 51% to 46%. Three weeks ago he was ahead by seven.

But Obama has not fallen below 50% all month while McCain has been stuck in the 45%-46% range.

One percent (1%) of Colorado voters are for Independent candidate Ralph Nader, while two percent (2%) remain undecided.

McCain last led the race in mid-September, but as in much of the country, his numbers in the state began falling as Wall Street’s troubles began dominating the front pages. Colorado, with nine Electoral College votes, has been won by the Republican candidates in nine of the last 10 presidential elections and is considered critical to McCain’s bid for the White House.

Nationally, Obama continues to hold a modest but stable lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of McCain voters are certain they will not change their mind before voting along with 91% of those for Obama.

Among those who have already voted, 57% back Obama compared to 42% for McCain. The Republican has an 11-point lead among those who have not yet voted.

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

The Democrat has a 14-point edge among unaffiliated voters, unchanged from a week ago. McCain is supported by 50% of white voters and 24% of non-whites. Sixty-four percent (64%) of non-white voters and 47% of whites back Obama.

Men favor McCain by five points, while women go for Obama by 11 (see full demographic crosstabs).

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Colorado voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, and 43% regard him unfavorably. McCain has 54% favorables and 46% unfavorables.

Overall, Obama is trusted by slightly more voters than McCain, 48% to 46%. Voters are near evenly divided on which candidate they would seek advice from if confronted with the toughest decision of their lives.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Colorado voters, as in other states, rank the economy as the number one issue in the campaign. Obama has a seven-point lead in terms of voter trust on the economy and jobs.

Eighteen percent (18%) say national security is the number one electoral issue, and McCain has a two-point edge in voter trust in this area.

Forty-seven percent (47%) say they would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama as president versus 40% who feel that way about McCain. Thirty-nine percent (39%) would be not at all comfortable with the Democrat in the White House, and 35% say the same of his Republican rival. These numbers remain largely unchanged from a week ago.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters in the state say the most important quality of a candidate is his ability to bring about needed change, followed by 24% who say he needs to share voters’ values. Twenty percent (20%) say it’s most important that he cares about “people like you.” Only 12% say the most important quality a candidate must have is the right experience for the job.

Republicans put the most emphasis on shared values, while 58% of Democrats emphasize the candidate’s ability as an agent of change.

Eighty-one percent (81%) describe themselves as extremely interested in the presidential election, and 64% say they are at least somewhat likely to take an exit poll after voting. Thirteen percent (13%) say they are not at all likely to take such a poll.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a % chance of carrying Colorado on Election Day. At the time this poll was released, Colorado is rated “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel also have jointly released several other battleground state polls today, including numbers from Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. See an overview of the battleground state polling from all six states. Earlier, Rasmussen Reports also released new polling data from Arizona and California.

Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

Take a moment to predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will actually win.

 

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Colorado Leans Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

47%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

51%

50%

This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Colorado Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

47%

51%

10/26/2008

46%

50%

10/19/2008

46%

51%

10/16/2008

45%

52%

10/05/2008

45%

51%

09/28/2008

48%

49%

09/23/2008

47%

50%

09/14/2008

48%

46%

09/07/2008

46%

49%

08/13/2008

47%

45%

07/21/2008

42%

49%

06/17/2008

41%

43%

05/19/2008

42%

48%

04/16/2008

43%

46%

03/17/2008

46%

46%

02/11/2008

39%

46%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Colorado

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

10%

Very Unfavorable

21%

35%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.