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Colorado: Race tightens, Obama 43%, McCain 41%

The Presidential race in Colorado has narrowed again, with Barack Obama dropping to just two percentage points ahead of Republican John McCain. One out of two Colorado residents say the Democrat is too inexperienced to be President.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama with 43% of the vote in Colorado and McCain earning 41%. Eight percent (8%) support a third-party candidate, and 7% are undecided. Support for both major candidates is down from a month ago when Obama led by six, 48% to 42%. (See Video)

Obama registered a modest bounce nationally after besting Hillary Rodham Clinton for his party’s nomination early this month. But, the findings in Colorado show the narrowest gap between Obama and McCain since March when they were tied.

Colorado has gone Republican in the last three presidential contests, reelecting George W. Bush in 2004 by five percentage points. Over the past forty years, Colorado has cast its Electoral Votes for the Democrats just once—for Bill Clinton in 1992. But Obama and his party have targeted it as a swing state this year. Obama has shown surprising strength in Colorado against his Republican opponent, especially since McCain handily defeated Clinton in survey match-ups before her withdrawal from the race. Democrats also have a good chance of picking up a Senate seat in Colorado this year.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Colorado’s nine Electoral College votes this November. At the time this poll was released, Colorado was rated as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Still, 50% of Colorado voters think Obama is too inexperienced to serve in the White House, but 42% disagree. Sixty-six percent (66%) say McCain is not too old to be president, although 26% say he is.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54%, up 2% from May. Obama’s favorability rating has dropped five percentage points in the past month to 50%.

Despite Clinton’s withdrawal from the race, Obama’s support among Democrats remains unchanged from last month at 77%. McCain’s support among Republicans is now 82%, up 3% from last month. The Democrat still maintains a sizable 17% lead among unaffiliated voters, but that’s down 4% from May.

Women voters support Obama over McCain by a 50% to 38% margin. Men favor the Republican, 45% to 35%.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Colorado voters oppose having Clinton on the ticket with Obama, but 24% think it’s a good idea.

Over half the state’s voters (52%) oppose Amendment 48, a proposed addition to the state constitution that defines a fertilized human egg as a person. The proposal was certified late last month for inclusion on the ballot in November. Thirty-five percent (35%) support the amendment, with 14% undecided.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) favor offshore oil drilling, an issue that heated up this week when McCain proposed lifting the 27-year ban on it to help ease gas prices. Obama opposes such drilling, as do 24% of Colorado voters. Nationally, most voters share the sentiments of Colorado voters and favor offshore drilling. A majority (54%) oppose nationalizing oil companies to deal with the growing energy crisis, but 21% favor such a move.

Free trade, another growing campaign issue, is viewed favorably by 47%, but 26% characterize it as bad and 17% as neither. That’s a bit more positive view of free trade than the national average.

Like much of the country, Colorado takes a dim view of the federal government, with 67% saying it has become a special interest group of its own and 70% saying it does not represent the will of the people.

President Bush’s job approval rating is up very slightly, with 33% saying he is doing a good or excellent job as opposed to 31% last month. However, 52% say he is doing a poor job, also up one point.

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Colorado
Leans Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

47%

46%

44%

Obama (D)

51%

51%

50%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Colorado Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/02/2008

47%

51%

10/26/2008

46%

50%

10/19/2008

46%

51%

10/16/2008

45%

52%

10/05/2008

45%

51%

09/28/2008

48%

49%

09/23/2008

47%

50%

09/14/2008

48%

46%

09/07/2008

46%

49%

08/13/2008

47%

45%

07/21/2008

42%

49%

06/17/2008

41%

43%

05/19/2008

42%

48%

04/16/2008

43%

46%

03/17/2008

46%

46%

02/11/2008

39%

46%

Colorado Trends: McCain vs. Clinton

Date

McCain

Clinton

05/19/2008

47%

44%

04/16/2008

50%

36%

03/17/2008

52%

38%

02/11/2008

49%

35%

11/28/2007

44%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Colorado

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

36%

43%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

10%

Very Unfavorable

21%

35%

Not Sure

1%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.