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Election 2008: California Presidential Election
Obama Up By 27 in California

There are no surprises in California where Barack Obama enjoys a huge lead over John McCain.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of California voters shows Obama leading McCain by 27 percentage points, 61% to 34% (see crosstabs). Obama has led in all nine California polls conducted this year. Earlier this month, McCain reached the 40% level of support for only the second time all year but still trailed by 16.

In California, 45% of voters name economic issues as most important for Election 2008. Domestic issues such as Social Security and health care are seen as most important by 20% while 17% say national security issues are their highest priority.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of California voters trust Obama more than McCain when it comes to economic issues. Thirty-four percent (34%) disagree and have more confidence in McCain. McCain does a bit better when it comes to national security issues, but most California voters prefer Obama on that topic as well.

Overall, Obama is viewed favorably by 67%, McCain by 44%.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Nationally, Obama continues to enjoy a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

Rasmussen Markets data show that Democrats have a % chance of winning California this November. Al Gore beat George W. Bush by 11 points in California in the 2000 election, and four years later John Kerry carried the state by 10 points. At the time this poll was released, California is listed as "Safely Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job performance earns good or excellent marks from 32% of voters, but 30% say he is doing a poor job.

President Bush gets good or excellent marks from just 23% while 62% say he is doing a poor job.

See survey questions and toplines.Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

As for the Electoral College, Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by Bush in 2004, McCain is trailing in four, and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

Take a moment to predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year.

 

Recent statewide presidential polls also have been released for Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland,Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota,Mississippi,Missouri, Montana,Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon,Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas,Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


California Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/25/2008

34%

61%

40%

56%

39%

56%

37%

51%

38%

50%

30%

58%

38%

52%

43%

50%

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in California

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

19%

52%

Somewhat Favorable

25%

15%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

30%

22%

Not Sure

2%

2%


Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.