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California: Obama Holds onto Solid Lead in Big Blue State

The Presidential race in California – not surprisingly – continues to lean strongly in Barack Obama’s favor. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Obama on top 51% to 37%.

Nationally, the race between McCain and Obama remains competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College.

When “leaners” are included, Obama leads McCain 54% to 41%. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama. Premium Members can review full crosstabs and see results by gender, age, ideology, party, income, and other demographics. Time is running out to save on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

The race has held steady since last month, when the Democrat had a twelve-point lead.

McCain is viewed favorably by 51% of voters in California and unfavorably by 48%. Obama’s ratings are 61% favorable, 39% unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data show that Democrats have a % chance of winning California’s fifty-four Electoral College votes this November. John Kerry won the state by ten percentage points in Election 2004. Four years earlier, Al Gore won an eleven point victory in the state. No Republican has won California since the first President Bush in 1988. At the time this poll was released, California is listed as "Safely Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

The latest survey also found that while 80% of voters in California say finding new energy sources is an urgent national need, 70% say that of reducing energy consumption. When given the choice of which is more important, 59% chose finding new energy sources while 35% said reducing the amount of energy Americans consume. Those figures are similar to the national average.

When it comes to presidential campaigns. 61% of voters in California say most politicians will break the rules in order to help those who contribute money to their campaigns. Like voters on the national level more voters in California (51%) say media bias is a bigger problem today than big campaign contributions. Forty-one percent (41%) take the opposite view. Slightly more voters in California (44%) say McCain is too influenced by campaign contributors and lobbyists than those who think that of Obama (38%).

Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger earns good or excellent ratings from 28% of voters, while 32% say he is doing a poor job.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 23% of voters, down from 30% last month, while 63% say he is doing a poor job, up from 57% last month. Nationally, the president’s approval ratings continue to hover around record lows.

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California Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

34%

38%

37%

Obama (D)

61%

58%

55%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


California Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/25/2008

34%

61%

10/09/2008

40%

56%

09/22/2008

39%

56%

08/20/2008

37%

51%

07/24/2008

38%

50%

06/23/2008

30%

58%

05/20/2008

38%

52%

04/16/2008

43%

50%

03/12/2008

38%

53%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in California

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

19%

52%

Somewhat Favorable

25%

15%

Somewhat Unfavorable

24%

8%

Very Unfavorable

30%

22%

Not Sure

2%

2%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.