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Election 2008: Arizona Presidential Election
McCain 51%, Obama 46% in Arizona

John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to just five points in his home state of Arizona. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Senator leading 51% to 46%.

McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of voters in Arizona and unfavorably by 40%. Obama’s ratings are 49% favorable, 50% unfavorable.

Voters in Arizona trust their state’s Senator more than Obama on the top issue of the economy by a 52% to 44% margin. However, voters not affiliated with either party trust Obama more, 52% to 39%.

On national security and the War on Terror, voters in Arizona trust McCain more by a 56% to 40% margin. Again, unaffiliated voters trust the Democrat more on this issue, 49% to 45%.

Prior to the latest poll, the smallest lead McCain held in the state was nine percentage points back in June. Last month, McCain led 59% to 38%.

Arizona women now favor Obama 49% to 47% while McCain leads among men 55% to 42%. White voters favor McCain 56% to 42%, down from a 23-point lead in September. Hispanics support Obama 58% to 34% (see full demographic crosstabs).

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Nationally, Obama continues to hold a modest but stable lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a --% chance of winning Arizona this November. The state, with six Electoral College votes, is currently rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel will jointly release a series of battleground state polls tonight at 6 p.m. Eastern, including numbers from Florida, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

 

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Arizona Likely Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

51%

54%

52%

Obama (D)

46%

40%

39%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Arizona Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/26/2008

51%

46%

09/29/2008

59%

38%

07/31/2008

52%

36%

06/25/2008

49%

40%

04/152007

57%

37%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Arizona

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

32%

35%

Somewhat Favorable

27%

14%

Somewhat Unfavorable

16%

10%

Very Unfavorable

24%

40%

Not Sure

2%

1%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.