John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to just five points in his home state of Arizona. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Senator leading 51% to 46%.
McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of voters in Arizona and unfavorably by 40%. Obama’s ratings are 49% favorable, 50% unfavorable.
Voters in Arizona trust their state’s Senator more than Obama on the top issue of the economy by a 52% to 44% margin. However, voters not affiliated with either party trust Obama more, 52% to 39%.
On national security and the War on Terror, voters in Arizona trust McCain more by a 56% to 40% margin. Again, unaffiliated voters trust the Democrat more on this issue, 49% to 45%.
Prior to the latest poll, the smallest lead McCain held in the state was nine percentage points back in June. Last month, McCain led 59% to 38%.
Arizona women now favor Obama 49% to 47% while McCain leads among men 55% to 42%. White voters favor McCain 56% to 42%, down from a 23-point lead in September. Hispanics support Obama 58% to 34% (see full demographic crosstabs).
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Nationally, Obama continues to hold a modest but stable lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a --% chance of winning Arizona this November. The state, with six Electoral College votes, is currently rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.
Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel will jointly release a series of battleground state polls tonight at 6 p.m. Eastern, including numbers from Florida, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.
Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.
See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.
|
Arizona Likely Republican |
Latest RR Poll |
RR Poll Avg. |
"538" Avg. |
RR Mkts. |
In Trade |
|
McCain (R) |
51% |
54% |
52% |
||
|
Obama (D) |
46% |
40% |
39% |
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
See Methodology
|
Arizona Trends: McCain vs. Obama |
||
|---|---|---|
|
Date |
McCain |
Obama |
|
10/26/2008 |
51% |
46% |
|
59% |
38% |
|
|
52% |
36% |
|
|
49% |
40% |
|
|
57% |
37% |
|
|
Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Arizona |
||
|---|---|---|
|
McCain |
Obama |
|
|
Very Favorable |
32% |
35% |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
27% |
14% |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
16% |
10% |
|
Very Unfavorable |
24% |
40% |
|
Not Sure |
2% |
1% |
About Rasmussen Reports
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
