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Election 2008: Alaska Presidential Election
McCain Maintains Big Lead in Alaska

John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama in Alaska has changed little over the past three weeks. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCain ahead 57% to 41%.

McCain held a 15-point lead in early October in his running mate Sarah Palin’s home state.

The latest numbers from the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll find the race between McCain and Obama tightening a bit over the past week after the Democrat has maintained a stable lead all month.

Unaffiliated voters in Alaska continue to be closely divided between the candidates. Obama now leads 49% to 48% among these voters, but he had a four-point lead among them two weeks ago. While his lead has held steady among men, McCain now leads among women 55% to 44%, up from a nine-point lead earlier in the month.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Alaska’s three Electoral College votes in November. Alaska is classified as “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right corner of this article.

McCain is viewed favorably by 63% of Alaska voters and unfavorably by 37%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable, 52% unfavorable.

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Voters in Alaska trust McCain more than Obama on the top issue of the economy by a 55% to 41% margin. Unaffiliated voters favor the Democrat on the issue, 50% to 45%.

On national security, McCain holds a 59% to 38% advantage over Obama in overall voter trust. Unaffiliated voters trust the Republican more 50% to 45%.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 40% of voters in Alaska, while 44% give his job performance a poor rating.

A survey this week conducted after Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens was convicted for failing to report more than $250,000 in gifts and home renovations finds the incumbent trailing challenger Mark Begich in his bid for re-election. Both McCain and Governor Palin have encouraged the the longtime Alaska senator to step down from his position.

Battleground state polls released Monday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”

 

In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-174.

Other new polls show McCain ahead in Arkansas and Mississippi while Obama has the advantage in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Alaska Safe Republican

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

"538" Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

McCain (R)

57%

59%

56%

Obama (D)

41%

38%

38%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Alaska Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

10/28/2008

57%

41%

10/06/2008

55%

40%

09/09/2008

64%

33%

07/30/2008

44%

39%

07/17/2008

45%

40%

06/16/2008

45%

41%

05/14/2008

50%

41%

04/07/2008

48%

43%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Alaska

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

38%

33%

Somewhat Favorable

25%

15%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

12%

Very Unfavorable

17%

40%

Not Sure

0%

1%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.