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ELECTIONS

  • Trump Change: 74% of GOP Voters Think Trump Likely Nominee

    What a difference a primary makes. After a one-week drop following Donald Trump’s second-place finish in the Iowa caucus, expectations that the New York businessman will be the Republican presidential nominee have jumped back to their highest levels.

    Rasmussen Reports’ latest Trump Change survey, the first since Trump’s big win in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, finds that 74% of Likely Republican Voters again feel he is likely to be the GOP nominee. This includes 40% who say it’s Very Likely, tying the high first reached three weeks ago.

    Last week, 61% of Republicans still believed Trump was the likely nominee, but that was down from a high of 74% the week before.

    Twenty-one percent (21%) of GOP voters say Trump is not likely to win the nomination, but that includes only six percent (6%) who feel it’s Not At All Likely. Those findings were up to 36% and 14% respectively a week ago. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 9-10, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

  • Most Republicans Don’t Consider Trump A Conservative

    Yes or no, is Donald Trump really a conservative? Many in the conservative establishment including prominent commentators and the editors of National Review magazine say he is not, but what do voters think? (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 9-10, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

  • How Does Bloomberg Impact a Clinton-Trump Race?

    Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has made it official that he is considering entering this year’s presidential race as an independent. Early polling suggests a Bloomberg candidacy would be good for Donald Trump and bad for Hillary Clinton.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that the Republican front-runner would win a hypothetical three-way matchup with Bloomberg and the leading Democratic contender: Trump earns 36% support to Clinton’s 30% and Bloomberg’s eight percent (8%). But a sizable 20% prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily email update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 7-8, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

  • Will the Presidential Nominees Agree With You?

    With the primary process finally underway, both Republicans and Democrats are more confident that the ideological leanings of their party's eventual presidential nominee will match theirs. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily email update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 1-2, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

  • Obama, GOP Congress Aren't Much Help for Nominees

    Voters still don’t see President Obama or the Republican-controlled Congress as an asset to their respective party’s presidential candidate, but GOP voters are far more likely to see their party’s legislators as a burden on the party’s nominee. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily email update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 1-2, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

  • Trump Still Well Ahead Among GOP Voters Nationally

    With tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary a make-or-break event for several of the candidates, Donald Trump still holds a double-digit lead nationally over his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are in a virtual tie for second place.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds that Trump earns 31% support, followed by Rubio with 21% and Cruz at 20%. The rest of the candidates are in mid- to low single digits.

    Six percent (6%) say they would vote for Ohio Governor John Kasich if the GOP primary in their state were held today, while Dr. Ben Carson is next with five percent (5%) support and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is at four percent (4%). New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, the one candidate excluded from Saturday night’s debate in New Hampshire, each earn three percent (3%) of the vote. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The national telephone survey of 725 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on February 3-4, 2016. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

  • Clinton's Support Holds Steady Nationally

    And then there were two. Following a near-tie in the Iowa caucus Monday, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders went toe-to-toe last night in a debate in New Hampshire, the setting of next week’s primary. Have the dynamics of the race changed?

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 50% of Likely Democratic Voters would vote for Clinton if the Democratic presidential primary were held in their state today, while 32% would opt for Sanders. Twelve percent (12%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily email update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The survey of 574 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted on February 3-4, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

  • Voters Predict Next President Likely A Republican

    With just the first round of the presidential contest over, most voters still think the next occupant of the White House is likely to be a Republican.

    A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters say it’s likely that the next president after Barack Obama will come from the GOP. Just 36% say that’s unlikely. These findings include 25% who think a Republican president is Very Likely and only nine percent (9%) who consider it Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 28 and 31, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

  • Voters Are Cool to Candidates Born Outside the U.S.

    It’s generally been considered legal for American citizens born outside the United States like Republican Ted Cruz to run for the presidency, but voters aren’t all that enthusiastic about such candidates. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily email update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 26-27, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

  • Is Hillary's Campaign Really in Trouble?

    Democrats blame the media for the perception that Hillary Clinton's campaign is stumbling, but voters in general aren't so sure. All agree, however, that there's no need yet for Joe Biden or some other major Democrat to jump into the race for the party's presidential nomination.

    A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 19% of Likely Democratic Voters believe that Clinton's campaign is in trouble. Sixty-nine percent (69%) disagree and say that is more a perception being created by the media. Twelve percent (12%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

    The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 24-25, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.