If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

COMMENTARY BY MICHAEL BARONE

  • Brexit Earthquake Hits Britain By Michael Barone

    Earthquakes seldom hit the British Isles. But one did late Thursday night and early Friday morning, as the constituency returns started pouring in on the referendum to decide whether the United Kingdom would remain in or leave the European Union.    

  • Trump Pivoting Away From Tabloid-Style Campaigning By Michael Barone

    Donald Trump is the latest proof that the campaign always reflects the candidate and that the candidate is a product of his experience over the years. So, as Trump, after clinching the Republican nomination, reshuffles and rejiggers a campaign that has fallen behind Hillary Clinton, it's instructive to look at his political ground zero.   

  • Why We Have -- and Probably Will Keep Having -- Sluggish Job Growth By Michael Barone

    Why has the American economy had such sluggish job creation and economic growth? That's a pretty fundamental question, and one for which most conventional economists have had unsatisfying answers.   

  • Brexit Causes Elites Angst -- But Britain May Leave EU Anyway By Michael Barone

    "Market Angst as U.K. Edges to Exit," proclaims the headline on The Wall Street Journal's lead story. The exit referred to is Britain's departure from the European Union, a move that will be mandated if a majority votes "leave" rather than "remain" in the national referendum next Thursday.  

  • Possible Errors in Exit Polls Suggest More Election Surprises Ahead By Michael Barone

    Are the exit polls, on which just about every elections analyst has relied, wrong? That's a question raised by New York Times Upshot writer Nate Cohn -- a question whose answers have serious implications for how you look at the 2016 general election.

  • Bernie Sanders Wins, Even While Losing By Michael Barone

    Bernie Sanders is not going gently into that good night, at least not yet.

    After hearing Monday from the Associated Press that Hillary Clinton had clinched the nomination, after absorbing Tuesday night a solid defeat in the California primary and losses in three other states, Sanders was still pledging to go on campaigning for the District of Columbia's 20 delegates in its primary next Tuesday and to fight on until the Democratic National Convention opens in Philadelphia July 25.

  • Neither Candidate Is Getting the Immigration Issue Right By Michael Barone

    No contemporary political issue has been more controversial, or has been subject to more dubious analyses, than immigration.

  • The Dogs That Aren't Barking -- and Those That Are -- in 2016 By Michael Barone

    Let's look back on the primary campaign -- completed for Republicans, still ongoing for Democrats -- and see if we can identify what Sherlock Holmes referred to as dogs that didn't bark.

  • Cities Should Have Room for Everyone By Michael Barone

    Nearly a century ago, in 1920, the Census Bureau caused a ruckus when it announced that, for the first time, a majority of Americans lived in cities -- even though its definition of a city included every hamlet with a population of 2,500 and above.

    Today a majority of Americans live in what are by any reasonable definition very large cities, metropolitan areas with populations above 1 million. But the urban planning profession remains fixated on just one small portion of these metropolises, the central city downtowns, though none outside New York contains more than 10 percent of metropolitan area jobs.

  • Trump, Clinton Tied in Polls: Were All the Wise Men Wrong? By Michael Barone

    It was conventional wisdom among the political cognoscenti during most of the primary season that Donald Trump could not win the general election. The evidence seemed strong.

    Over 12 months of polling from May 2015 to April 2016, Hillary Clinton ran ahead of Trump in 63 national polls, while Trump led her in only six and tied her in three. Polls in the dozen or so 2012 target states showed similar results.