This week the Crystal Ball publishes a prediction that suggests the House majority may stay with the Democrats, written by Professor Alfred G. Cuzan of the University of West Florida. While Professor Cuzan makes a compelling case, the Crystal Ball’s unique dual method—examining all 435 House races individually and incorporating the result of statistical analysis based on past elections and developed over many years by Professor Alan Abramowitz, one of our Senior Columnists at the Crystal Ball —has pointed to a House gain of +47 seats for the GOP, which would deliver the majority into Republican hands. We urge our readers to consider Professor Cuzan’s analysis and arguments, and decide for themselves which outcome they believe is more likely. – Larry J. Sabato, Editor
In his first year in the White House, Barack Obama’s job approval fell about fifteen points. (The source for all poll data analyzed in this article is the Roper Center.) This steep decline was unusual but not unprecedented for a new president.