Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Saturday, February 11, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-nine percent (39%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13 (see trends).

President Obama yesterday eased his controversial requirement that Catholic institutions pay for contraception that they morally oppose. Prior to the president’s reversal, Scott Rasmussen outlined the political downside of that policy in his new column, “Team Obama Fumbles, Offends Catholics.”  

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 49% to 42% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (see tracking history).

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum trails the president by four percentage points, 46% to 42%. Rasmussen Reports will now be tracking the Obama-Santorum race on a daily basis. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Last week, Santorum had a one-point advantage over Obama. However, like Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich before him, Santorum was unable to sustain that advantage beyond a single poll.

In Florida as in Ohio and among voters nationally, Santorum now runs slightly stronger against Obama than Romney does. Obama is essentially even with Santorum in the Sunshine State but leads Romney by three points.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve.

Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance.  Fifty percent (50%) at least somewhat disapprove.

With political chaos continuing in Egypt and Libya, voters are now evenly divided over whether the political changes from last year’s so-called “Arab Spring” are good or bad for the United States. Most favor an end to long-standing U.S. aid to Egypt.

Most Americans continue to view teachers’ unions negatively and believe even more strongly that it's too hard to get rid of bad teachers. 

Be sure to pick up a copy of Scott Rasmussen’s new book: THE PEOPLE’S MONEY: How Voters Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt. Scott shows how politicians created the budget crisis by pursuing their own agenda and ignoring voters. You can also order an autographed edition.   

The president’s job approval ratings for handling the economy have improved lately, and it’s no coincidence that perceptions of how he’s handling the economy have improved as well.  The economy remains the most important issue of Election 2012, and voters are a bit more likely to trust Republicans than Democrats on handling the economy.

Only 38% believe the current Congress is better than a group randomly selected from the phone book.  A plurality (43%) thinks names picked out of the phone book would do a better job. Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe that election rules are rigged to benefit congressional incumbents.

In the race for the GOP nomination, it’s Romney 34%, Gingrich 27%, Santorum 18% and Paul at 11%. Even with such a modest lead, 75% of GOP voters believe Romney will end up as the party nominee.

If you’d like Scott Rasmussen to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers. You can also follow Scott on Facebook.  The Wall Street Journal  has called him “America’s leading insurgent pollster” and The Washington Post   says Scott is a “driving force in American politics.”

Scott’s earlier book, In Search of Self-Governance , dissects the issues brought about by an “unholy alliance” between government and big business.  The author notes, “Self-governance is about far more than politics and government. It requires a lot of the American people, and it has nothing to do with the petty partisan games played by Republicans and Democrats. Unfortunately, even after more than 200 years of success, there is an urgent need to defend this most basic of American values.”

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It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama's numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 34.7% Republicans, 33.6% Democrats, and 31.8% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.

A review of last week's key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

To get a sense of longer-term trends, check out our month-by-month review of the president's numbers.