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Hillary Clinton's support as an Independent candidate in a hypothetical 5-way Presidential race should not come as a surprise. In a poll released by Rasmussen Reports yesterday, 29% of Democrats say that Hillary Clinton should run for president as an Independent, if she does not win the Democratic Party nomination. The presidential primary races have almost finished and the two current front runners for their respective parties have a striking similarity – they both have an appeal that extends beyond their party base. The Republican Party has effectively chosen its nominee. That nominee is John McCain. There are two underlying trends that have emerged when examining recent poll results. I have argued for the last couple of months that the Democratic primary race has been static, representing a strong, if not dominant position for Hillary Clinton. Several recent polls and the Real Clear Politics Averages have suggested that Hillary Clinton no longer leads the Democratic race in Iowa, raising questions about her inevitability as the Democratic nominee. The new Rasmussen Iowa numbers taken together with earlier polls taken by ABC News and the Washington Post, throw many assumptions about the likely result of the Republican Presidential primary into doubt. The race among Democrats is too close to call. Drawing any finer distinction will drive the analysts to distraction as there are so many polls being done it is impossible to divine a clear trend indicating which way the race is going. According to Real Clear Politics, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continues to enjoy a solid double digit lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire. |