Generic Congressional Ballot

On the eve of the midterm elections, the Democratic Party leads Republicans by six points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 43% would vote for the Republican. Three percent (3%) say they would vote for some other candidate and five percent (5%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The net advantage for Democrats has increased by one point since last week, when they led by five points, 48% to 43%.  The position for Republicans in this year’s final poll is a net nine points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority. 

(Not getting our eNewsletter? Sign up HERE. Already signed up? Try adding update@rasmussenreports.com to your contacts or whitelisting us. Still having trouble – email subscriptions@rasmussenreports.com. If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,442 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 22 and 25-28, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 86% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Voters not affiliated with either major party are evenly divided, with 40% who would vote for Democrats and 40% for Republicans, while seven percent (7%) would vote third-party and 13% are undecided.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of all Likely Voters say they are excited about voting in this year’s elections for Congress, including 56% who are Very Excited. More Democrats (67%) than Republicans (54%) or unaffiliated voters (45%) describe themselves as Very Excited about the midterm elections.

The “gender gap” is a net 16 points. Women voters prefer Democrats by a 53% to 39% margin, while men favor Republicans, 47% to 45%.

Forty-five percent (45%) of whites, 69% of black voters, 49% of Hispanics and 45% of other minorities would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 48% of whites, 21% of black voters, and 41% of both Hispanics and other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats lead by a double-digit margin among voters under 40, while the two parties are nearly tied among those ages 40-49. Older voters are more likely to say they are Very Excited about voting in the midterm elections.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 80% of Donald Trump voters would vote Republican. Harris voters are more likely to say they are Very Excited to vote.

Michigan’s Democratic Attorney General Jocelyn Benson leads by double digits over Republican Rep. John James in the race to be the state’s next governor. 

Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has widened his lead over former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.