Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

May 9, 2024Districts of Change, Part Two: Looking Beyond the Straight-Party Districts By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Most districts in the House, 379 of the 435, have exclusively backed nominees from only one of the major parties in presidential elections since 2008.
— This leaves 56 districts that have voted at least once for both parties.
— Districts that backed Barack Obama twice and then did the same for Donald Trump make up the most numerous non-straight party group, and most of those districts have Republicans in Congress.
— Democrats, however, hold four of the five “bellwether” districts that have backed the winners of the last four presidential elections.

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                            May 8, 2024'Drain the Swamp' By John Stossel
   Presidential candidate Donald Trump promised to "drain the swamp!"

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                            May 8, 2024That '70s Show -- Is Biden Taking America Back to the Age of Jimmy Carter? By Stephen Moore
   Everything that is happening in our fractured nation today seems so worrisomely reminiscent of America's last lost decade -- the 1970s.

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                            May 7, 2024The Vietnam Era Never Ended for Biden's Party By Daniel McCarthy
   "This may be Biden's Vietnam."

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                            May 3, 2024Campus Riots and a Chicago Convention: Deja Vu All Over Again? By Michael Barone
As the philosopher and baseball player Yogi Berra once (supposedly) said, it's deja vu all over again. Student protesters are occupying campuses of famed universities across the country. In New York, Columbia University protesters occupied administrative offices in Hamilton Hall and were cleared out by police, exactly 56 years to the day after student protesters occupied and were thrown out of that building in 1968.
May 2, 2024Districts of Change, Part One: How All 435 Congressional Districts Voted from 2008-2020 By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— One of the most useful tools that the Crystal Ball employs on a regular basis is Dave’s Redistricting App, which helps us make sense of redistricting and includes a plethora of data.
— Using some of DRA’s newly-released data, we are looking back at how the 2008 election compares to 2020 by congressional district.
— Despite doing several points worse nationally than Barack Obama did in 2008, Joe Biden performed better than Obama in nearly half (211) of the current 435 House districts.
— Our home state of Virginia illustrates several of the broader national swings that have taken hold since 2008.
— Most districts cast more raw votes in 2020 than they did in 2008, though there are some interesting exceptions.

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                            May 1, 2024'Make Government Work' By John Stossel
   President Joe Biden says, "I know how to make government work!"

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                            April 30, 2024Four Radical Reforms to Shrink the Federal Budget By Stephen Moore
   It was nearly 50 years ago that a liberal Congress completely dominated by Democrat big spenders passed a new set of budget rules -- the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974.

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                            April 30, 2024Nationalists of the World, Unite? By Daniel McCarthy
        The historian John Lukacs used to say all the old "isms" of politics were defunct.

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                            April 26, 2024A Turning Point for American Foreign Policy? By Michael Barone
        Was the passage by the House last Saturday and the Senate on Tuesday of the foreign aid package with money for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan a turning point in American foreign policy?

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                            April 26, 2024Is the GOP the Stupid Party? By Brian Joondeph
The Republican Party has the reputation and hence the name, “The Stupid Party." They nominate weak candidates, fight with each other in a circular firing squad, give good concession speeches and, if somehow elected, then govern against the will of the people they supposedly represent.

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                            April 25, 2024Capitalism Versus Racism By John Stossel
        Capitalism and racism go together?

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                            April 23, 2024Foreign Policy Splits the Parties By Daniel McCarthy
   In 2024, foreign policy doesn't pit Republicans against Democrats so much as it pits Republicans against Republicans and Democrats against Democrats.

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                            April 23, 2024Why Small Businesses Hate Bidenomics By Stephen Moore
   If the economy is so good, why do small business leaders feel so bad?
   The latest Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business could hardly be more depressing. It finds that the men and women who run our 33 million small businesses and hire more than half of American workers are in a somber mood. The survey finds that small-business confidence has reached its lowest point in 12 years.

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                            April 19, 2024Maybe Larger Families Will Produce Better Leaders, as in the Early US By Michael Barone
   Why was America in the Revolutionary War era, with 3 million people, able to generate leaders of the quality of Benjamin Franklin and George Washington, while today's America, with 333 million people, generates the likes of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump?
April 18, 2024Where Trump’s Primary Showing Was (And Wasn’t) Especially Strong By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE—Though former President Donald Trump easily won most GOP primaries this year, some areas stood out to us.
—By comparing how Trump did in each county to how he did overall in each state, we can get a better idea of how his coalition is shaping up.
—Geographically, Trump beat his statewide primary share in a majority of counties in most states.
—Meanwhile, and not surprisingly, Trump tended to struggle in areas that are Democratic, or blue-trending, in general elections, although there were some exceptions.

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                            April 17, 2024The Kill Switch By John Stossel
   Soon the government might shut down your car.

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                            April 16, 2024Joe Biden on the Economy: I Don't Feel Your Pain By Stephen Moore
   In 1992, Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton famously answered a voter question about how the national debt affected him personally. Clinton's response was often paraphrased as, "I feel your pain."

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                            April 16, 2024Trump and the Pro-Life Dilemma By Daniel McCarthy
   Donald Trump is the furthest thing from a threat to democracy where abortion is concerned -- and for activists on both sides, that's alarming.
April 12, 2024Democrats are Getting Desperate (But Do They Have  an Ace Up Their Sleeves?) By Brian Joondeph
President Joe Biden is not popular these days. In the Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll from April 11, only 22% of likely US voters strongly approve of Biden’s job performance. In comparison, 46% strongly disapprove, a 24-point negative swing.