Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

May 8, 2025Notes on the State of the Senate: The Post-Kemp Battlefield By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Republicans missed out on a top recruiting target earlier this week, as Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) decided not to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA).
— Georgia remains a Toss-up in our ratings even as Ossoff’s reelection path got clearer.
— Another place where Democrats are playing defense, Michigan, remains a Toss-up, while a couple of other open Democratic seats in Democratic-leaning states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, are developing better for Democrats than Republicans.
— While there have already been many key developments in the race for the Senate in 2026, history shows that key candidate decisions may still be months away in some places.
— Republicans remain favored to retain control of the Senate in 2026, and we are not changing any ratings in this update.

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                            May 7, 2025Useless Government By John Stossel
I have a conflict.
I don't much like Linda McMahon, President Donald Trump's new Education Secretary. I sued her once.
She and her sleazy husband, Vince, owned a circus called World Wrestling Entertainment.
When I did a silly ABC news video on how the matches are staged, one of their 280-pound actors beat me up. A wrestler said Vince told him to do it.

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                            May 6, 2025Trump's Rumble on Sesame Street By Daniel McCarthy
President Donald Trump has fought plenty of political heavyweights, but now he's up against a foe far tougher than Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris: Big Bird.

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                            May 6, 2025The New Surprising Trump Constituency By Brian C. Joondeph
Conventional wisdom, meaning corporate media, portrays President Donald Trump’s supporters as white supremacists, xenophobes, and racists. They are extras in the movie Deliverance, with two teeth and a below room temperature IQ.

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                            May 6, 2025Yes, Let's Attract the Best and the Brightest By Stephen Moore
Situated on the outskirts of Sacramento is California's largest master-planned community, McClellan Park. It has homes, offices, restaurants, a hotel and even a 2-mile-long runway that serves jets. But 30 years ago, the location was a starkly different story: an Air Force base that had just been shuttered, costing 11,600 jobs.

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                            May 2, 2025Trump's Push for Equal Rights and Against Quotas By Michael Barone
   "It is the policy of the United States to eliminate the use of disparate-impact liability in all contexts to the maximum degree possible to avoid violating the Constitution, Federal civil rights laws, and basic American ideals."
May 1, 2025The Governors, Part Two: Familiar Battlegrounds Dot 2026 Map, but Watch for Upsets in Open Seats By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Many of 2024’s top presidential battlegrounds will feature high-profile gubernatorial elections in 2026.
— Arizona and Michigan start as the only two Toss-ups in our initial ratings.
— Be on the lookout for upsets thanks to the high number of open seats, perhaps coming from the long list of races that start rated as Likely for one side or the other.

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                            April 30, 2025Good Intentions: Bad Results By John Stossel
Government makes most things worse.

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                            April 30, 2025Trump's FTC Is Putting American Companies Last By Stephen Moore
President Donald Trump's record as the deregulation president is nearly unparalleled. In his first 100 days in office, he has already identified hundreds of billions of dollars of potential deregulation savings in the areas of energy, education and housing.
April 30, 2025The Governors, Part One: Democrats Start as Favorites in 2025 New Jersey and Virginia Races By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— While 2026 will feature three dozen gubernatorial contests, two states, New Jersey and Virginia, will elect governors in open-seat races this year.
— We are starting out both 2025 contests, which are in states that backed Kamala Harris by nearly 6 points apiece, as Leans Democratic.
— In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D, NJ-11) is a tenuous favorite for the Democratic nomination amidst a crowded field, while 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli is a stronger favorite on his side.
— Neither Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) nor former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) have primary competition, so Virginia’s race is in general election mode earlier than usual.

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                            April 29, 2025Don't Make Ukraine Another Vietnam By Daniel McCarthy
Fifty years ago on April 30, Saigon fell to the North Vietnamese, and the defeat was America's, too.

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                            April 25, 2025Reality Has a Vote, in Politics as in Entertainment By Michael Barone
Reality has a vote. That is one lesson administered to the body of politics in the first 100 days of President Donald Trump's second administration.
April 24, 2025Generic Ballot Model Gives Democrats Strong Chance to Take Back House in 2026 By Alan I. Abramowitz
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Just a couple of basic factors—House generic ballot polling and the number of seats the presidential party is defending—do a decent job of predicting midterm congressional election results.
— This model suggests Democrats would be favored to win the House majority even without a substantial lead in House generic ballot polling.
— The model also is bullish on Democrats in the Senate, but we urge caution on the findings, as the Senate model is historically less predictive than the House model and does not take into account this cycle’s specific Senate map.

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                            April 23, 2025Living Hell? By John Stossel
"Climate change will make earth a living hell!" claims popular astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson.

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                            April 23, 2025Is the Bloom Fading from Trump’s Rose? By Brian C. Joondeph
Rasmussen Reports released a concerning poll last week, revealing that at the three-month mark in President Donald Trump’s second term, a slim majority of voters are unhappy with the results thus far.

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                            April 22, 2025After Francis, Catholics Need a Populist Pope By Daniel McCarthy
Pope Francis was meant to be a pontiff for the age of globalization.

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                            April 22, 2025Sorry, Fannie Mae: We Won't Get Fooled Again
Anyone remember back in 2008 when the housing market collapsed and the stock market crashed, with many tens of millions of Americans seeing their lifetime savings nearly wiped out?

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                            April 18, 2025Why Does Union Membership Keep Declining? By Michael Barone
It hardly qualifies as news anymore, but according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, union membership declined from 2023 to 2024, going from 10% to 9.9% of wage and salary workers. Some 32% of public employees are union members compared to only 5.9% of private-sector workers, down from 6% in 2023.

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                            April 16, 2025Washington's Latest Tax Assault on Economic Success By Stephen Moore
The PE and VC track records in funding small businesses and turning them into the future gazelles is almost a uniquely American success story.

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                            April 16, 2025Climate Myths By John Stossel
I guess United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres didn't think his hyping global warming risks brought him enough attention, so now he says, "The era of global boiling has arrived!"