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GOP Now Ahead by 8 Points on Congressional Ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 137 days away, and Republicans have an eight-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The Republican lead has increased by three points since last week, when they led 46%-41%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In June 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a four-point advantage (45% to 41%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 19-23, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 15-point advantage among independents. While 90% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 83% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 45% would vote Republican and 30% would vote Democrat, while eight percent (8%) would vote for some other candidate and 17% are undecided.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 20% of Black voters and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Black voters, 35% of whites and 40% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (54%) now 12 points more likely than women voters (42%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was eight points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 49% to 37%, but 51% of voters ages 40-64 and 57% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Republican support is highest among entrepreneurs and retirees, while Democrats do best among government employees.

Four months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, voters are divided over the U.S. response to the war, and few approve of President Joe Biden’s handling of the situation.

Most voters clearly aren’t buying President Biden’s explanations about high gas prices and say he’s done a poor job of handling the economy overall.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 19-23, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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