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Biden Shouldn’t Run in 2024, Most Voters Say

A majority of voters think President Joe Biden shouldn’t seek reelection in 2024, and he would lose a rematch with former President Donald Trump by double-digit margins.

A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute finds that 61% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Biden should not run for a second term as president in 2024. Only 28% say Biden should seek reelection, while another 11% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If the next presidential election were held today, and Biden were running against Trump, 50% would vote for Trump while 36% would vote for Biden.

The results would be somewhat closer with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as Biden’s Republican opponent. Forty-six percent (46%) would vote for DeSantis and 35% would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while another 11% say they would vote for someone else.

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters have a favorable impression of Biden, including 25% who have a Very Favorable opinion of him. Fifty-five percent (55%) have an unfavorable view of Biden, including 44% whose opinion of the president is Very Unfavorable.

“While 64% of black voters said they have a favorable opinion of Biden, only 39% want him to run for re-election,” the Heartland Institute said in an analysis of the survey results. “Among Hispanics, just 43% have a favorable opinion and only 31% want him to run in the 2024 presidential election. Women voters – a key to Biden’s 2020 victory – have soured on the president, with only 26% wanting him to run again.”

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The survey of 1,004 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on April 28 and May 2, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

While 77% of Democrats have a favorable impression of Biden, only 49% of them want him to seek a second term in 2024. Just 11% of Republicans view Biden favorably, and 85% of them say Biden shouldn’t run again in 2024. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 34% have a favorable impression of Biden, but only 21% believe he should run for reelection in 2024.

In a rematch with Trump, 73% of Democrats would vote for Biden while 89% of Republicans would vote for Trump. Among unaffiliated voters in a Biden-Trump rematch, 48% would vote for Trump and 27% would vote for Biden, while 17% would vote for someone else.

In a contest between Biden and DeSantis, 69% of Democrats would vote for Biden and 80% of Republicans would vote for the Florida governor, while unaffiliated voters would go for DeSantis by a 16-point margin – 47% to 27% – over Biden, with 19% of unaffiliated voters preferring someone else.

“Against either prospective Republican presidential candidate, Biden did not gain majority support for re-election among likely voters overall in any racial, gender, or economic demographic,” the Heartland Institute observed. “The highest support Biden received was among 40% of voters who earn more than $200,000 a year and want him to run again.”

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters under 40 don’t think Biden should seek reelection in 2024, but in a rematch against Trump, voters under 40 would split about evenly – 40% for Biden and 39% for Trump. Among older voters, Trump would win a majority in a rematch with Biden. The lowest level of support for Biden is among voters ages 40-64, only 32% of whom have a favorable opinion of him and 25% think he should run for reelection in 2024.

While 51% of voters who are unmarried and childless have a favorable opinion of Biden, only 37% of those who are married with children view the president favorably.

Voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 annually are most opposed to a second term for Biden, with 65% saying he should not seek reelection in 2024.

The leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion that would overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision has voters divided almost evenly over the landmark abortion ruling.

More than a year after he left office, former President Trump’s endorsement of candidates still matters – more even than the current occupant of the White House.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as Platinum Members.

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The survey of 1,004 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on April 28 and May 2, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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