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Trump or Clinton - Who Are Voters Most Likely to Vote Against?

Thursday, March 03, 2016

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton may be the presidential front-runners in their respective parties, but right now there are more voters who say they will vote against them than will vote for them.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Likely U.S. Voters say they will definitely vote against Trump if he is the presidential nominee of the Republican Party, while just 30% say they will definitely vote for him, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Forty-two percent (42%) say they will definitely vote against Clinton if she is the Democratic Party’s nominee, while 36% say they will definitely vote for her.

The wild cards are the 16% in Trump’s case and the 18% in Clinton’s who say their vote depends on who is running against them. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Our latest hypothetical matchup, released yesterday, finds Clinton leading Trump 41% to 36% among all likely voters. In late December, the two were tied.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 29-March 1, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

When it comes to which candidate voters trust more on key issues, Trump leads when it comes to the economy, job creation and immigration. Clinton has held her lead on social issues but has widened her advantage on the environment. The two are virtually tied now when voters are asked whom they trust more to handle national security.

Among the voters who say their vote depends on who the opposing candidate is, roughly 55% say they will definitely not vote for Trump or Clinton if he or she is that opponent.

Among Republicans, 60% say they will definitely vote for Trump if he is their nominee, while 18% say they will definitely vote against him. Another 18% say it depends on who his opponent is.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Democrats say they will definitely vote for Clinton if she’s the party’s nominee versus 12% who will definitely vote against her. Thirteen percent (13%) say it depends.

When it comes to voters not affiliated with either major party, 47% say they will definitely vote against Trump, while 40% will definitely vote against Clinton. Roughly a quarter of the voters in this group say they will definitely vote for Trump or Clinton.

Women by a better than two-to-one margin say they will definitely vote against Trump. A plurality (47%) of men say they will definitely vote against Clinton.

Clinton has struggled to gain the support of those under 40 in the Democratic primaries to date. Among these voters, 39% say they will definitely vote for her, compared to 22% who will definitely vote for Trump.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of blacks say they will definitely vote for Clinton, but just 30% of whites and 37% of other minority voters agree.  Still, only 34% of whites and 28% of other minority voters say they will definitely vote for Trump, along with 10% of blacks.

Interestingly, voters in their respective parties are more likely to consider both Clinton and Trump to be moderates.

More Democrats than ever now support Clinton’s bid for their party’s presidential nomination.

With Jeb Bush out of the race, Trump has widened his lead on Rasmussen Reports' most recent Republican primary ballot survey.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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