State Attorneys General: The Top Races to be “Top Cop”

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— This cycle, 31 states will hold elections for attorney general—one in 2025 (Virginia) and the rest in 2026.

— Currently, the GOP holds 28 attorney general offices to 22 for the Democrats (counting an independent in Hawaii who was appointed by Democratic Gov. Josh Green).

— Our analysis suggests that seven AG races this year are currently competitive, including five Toss-ups. Democrats will largely be playing defense: All five seats in the Toss-up category are currently held by Democrats, with at least two of them open-seat races.

The races for state AG

This year and next, 31 states will hold elections for attorney general, a traditionally influential post that handles state-level criminal and civil cases.

As has been the case in recent years, Republicans hold an edge nationally in AG seats: Today, the GOP holds 28 attorney general offices to 22 for the Democrats (counting an independent in Hawaii who was appointed by Democratic Gov. Josh Green). Among the 43 elected (rather than appointed) AG offices, the GOP also holds the edge: 24 seats to 19 for the Democrats.

I have handicapped state AG races for over a decade for Governing, the Cook Political Report, and, since the 2022 cycle, the Crystal Ball.

In this, my first assessment of the 2025-26 AG races, seven states have competitive AG races: five Toss-ups, plus a Leans Republican and a Leans Democratic seat each.

Democrats will largely be playing defense: All five Toss-up races are currently held by Democrats, with at least two of them open-seat races, and potentially more to come open if additional incumbents run for a different office. Mirroring the national partisan split, four of the Toss-up AG races are in states that were considered presidential battlegrounds in 2024.

The five Toss-up AG races are in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and Wisconsin. The Leans Republican race is in Georgia, and the Leans Democratic race is in Virginia. The Virginia contest is the only one that leans away from the party that currently holds it. There, incumbent Republican Jason Miyares faces a challenging political environment for the GOP in the state’s off-off-year election.

The historical pattern for midterm elections is that parties in control of the White House tend to fare poorly. This should give a boost to Democrats, which they will need given the imbalance in vulnerable seats.

In a sign that AG races continue to be considered political stepping stones, eight current AGs are giving up their post to run for higher office: five for governor, two for the Senate, and one for the House. A dozen of the 50 currently serving governors also served as their state’s attorney general at some point.

The remaining states with AG races this cycle include 10 Safe Republican seats, 3 Likely Republican seats, and 11 Safe Democratic seats. There are no Likely Democratic seats at this point. A caveat: It’s still early in the cycle, and in many of the competitive races, primary fields are not yet set. So changes are expected when we check back on these races over the next year and a half.

Here’s our breakdown of the 2025-26 AG races, with thumbnail descriptions of each contest as it stands today.

SAFE REPUBLICAN

Alabama: Open (Steve Marshall, R, is running for Senate)

This open-seat contest has three leading Republican candidates. Pamela Casey was elected district attorney of Blount County in northern Alabama in 2010 at age 29, and she remains in that position. Jay Mitchell is a former associate justice of the Alabama Supreme Court who resigned to run for AG. And Katherine Robertson is chief counsel to the departing AG, Marshall, who has endorsed her.

No Democratic hopeful has emerged, and in this overwhelmingly Republican state, the winner of the primary will be all but a shoo-in for November.

Arkansas: Tim Griffin, R

Griffin has no announced opposition in the primary and also lacks a Democratic challenger. He is a prohibitive favorite to win another term, and he is expected to seek the governorship eventually.

Idaho: Raúl Labrador, R

Labrador is widely believed to have viewed the AG post as a stepping stone to a run for governor in 2026. He has regularly butted heads with Gov. Brad Little, a fellow Republican—in fact, Little first won the governorship in 2018 by defeating Labrador in a primary. However, Trump threw a wrench into this plan when he endorsed Little for reelection earlier this year, even though Labrador’s style is arguably a closer fit to the MAGA model than Little’s establishment approach. (In 2022, Labrador, running as a MAGA-style candidate, defeated the Little-aligned Republican AG, Lawrence Wasden.)

It is not clear if Labrador would want to run against Trump’s endorsement in the gubernatorial race. If he goes ahead with challenging Little, the race for AG could be a wide open primary. Alternatively, if Labrador seeks to run again for reelection, he would be the favorite, though he could conceivably draw a Republican primary challenger.

No Democratic names have surfaced yet, but any Democrat would be a huge underdog in this ruby-red state.

Nebraska: Mike Hilgers, R

Hilgers should have no trouble winning another term in 2026.

North Dakota: Drew Wrigley, R

Wrigley has ruffled some feathers in office, but nothing has emerged to threaten his reelection.

Oklahoma: Open (Gentner Drummond, R, is running for governor)

Two Republican candidates are seeking the open AG seat. Jon Echols is the former House majority floor leader who was termed out after serving in the chamber for 12 years, and Jeff Starling currently serves as secretary of energy and environment, a post Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed him to in 2024. The primary should be competitive, and the winner should coast to victory in November. No Democratic candidate has emerged in this solidly red state.

South Carolina: Open (Alan Wilson, R, is running for governor)

The only candidates running so far for the open seat are Republican state Sen. Stephen Goldfinch and First Circuit Solicitor David Pascoe, who recently switched from Democrat to Republican, although others appear to be considering bids. No Democratic names have surfaced.

South Dakota: Open (Marty Jackley, R, is running for the U.S. House)

The only candidate yet for this open-seat race is Republican Lance Russell, the state’s attorney for Fall River and Oglala Lakota counties and a former member of both chambers of the state legislature. He ran unsuccessfully for AG in 2018. Russell has faced some controversies in his career, including judicial discipline, and he was even banned from the state House’s Republican caucus.

Whoever ends up as the Republican nominee—determined by a convention, rather than a primary—would be the odds-on favorite in this solidly red state.

Florida: James Uthmeier, R

Uthmeier was appointed to the post by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis earlier this year to succeed Ashley Moody, whom DeSantis had tapped to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated when Marco Rubio became secretary of state. Uthmeier previously served as DeSantis’s chief of staff.

His name has come up in a controversy over Hope Florida, a program spearheaded by DeSantis’s wife, Casey (a possible gubernatorial candidate herself), that aims to move Floridians off government assistance. The foundation backing the initiative is alleged to have improperly transferred $10 million from a fine for Medicaid fraud to groups fighting a 2024 constitutional initiative to legalize marijuana.

On the plus side in a primary, President Donald Trump recently complimented Uthmeier for coming up with the idea of Alligator Alcatraz, a high-profile detention center in South Florida that is part of Trump’s efforts at mass deportation. If Trump endorses Uthmeier, it would probably seal the GOP nomination for him; if Trump looks elsewhere, it would damage Uthmeier’s chances.

For now, Steven Leskovich, a relatively unknown attorney from Punta Gorda, is Uthmeier’s only primary competitor, though bigger Republican names have been floated as possibilities, including former Rep. Matt Gaetz and former state House speakers Paul Renner and Chris Sprowls.

The only contender so far on the Democratic side is former state Sen. José Javier Rodriguez, who was considered a rising star in the state party before narrowly losing his Miami-area seat in 2020. But Republicans have moved into near-dominance in Florida politics, leaving Democrats with limited possibilities for winning statewide office.

Texas: Open seat (Ken Paxton, R, is running for Senate)

With the controversial Paxton seeking to oust Sen. John Cornyn in a Republican primary, this seat is coming open for the first time since 2014. Before his time in the Senate, Cornyn served a term as Texas’s attorney general—he was replaced by now-Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in 2002, who himself handed the job over to Paxton in 2014.

Three Republicans have entered the race: state Sen. Mayes Middleton, state Sen. Joan Huffman, and former U.S. Justice Department official Aaron Reitz. Rep. Chip Roy (R, TX-21) is considering a bid. Another possible addition to the field would be state Sen. Bryan Hughes, but for now, he’s on the sidelines.

The Democrats have two candidates: state Sen. Nathan Johnson and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski.

Both parties’ primary terrains remain unformed. For November, Republicans start with a decided edge, but if Democrats look like they’re improving in the midterm environment—if the probably less-electable Paxton ousts Cornyn in the primary, it is possible the entire GOP ticket would suffer to some degree—this contest could become more competitive.

LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Ohio: Open seat (Dave Yost, R, is term-limited)

Barring the unexpected, Republicans seem to have cleared the field in the open-seat AG race for Keith Faber, the state auditor and former Senate president. Yost himself also served two terms as state auditor before winning his current office. If Ohio’s increasing Republican lean holds in 2026, Faber would be the odds-on favorite in November. However, any reversion in the midterm elections could give the Democrats an outside chance. So far, one Democrat has entered the race: Elliot Forhan, who had a rocky relationship with his fellow Democrats during a single term in the Ohio House.

Iowa: Brenna Bird, R

Bird decided against a run for governor and instead is running for reelection. She has a Democratic challenger, former state Rep. Nate Willems. He starts as a decided underdog, unless Democrats can get a midterm rebound in a state that has become considerably redder in recent election cycles.

Kansas: Kris Kobach, R

Kobach’s hardline approach to such issues as immigration were once out of the Republican mainstream, but his style and substance is more at home in the MAGA-focused second Trump term. This has made it easier to envision Kobach’s successful reelection in 2026 than observers would have thought in 2018 (when he lost a tight race to Democrat Laura Kelly for governor) or 2022 (when he won his first race for AG only narrowly).

Still, the 2026 midterm environment might be more challenging than 2022’s, and Kobach is set to face a rematch with the Democrat who came within 1.6 percentage points of defeating him that year: former law enforcement officer Chris Mann.

LEANS REPUBLICAN

Georgia: Open seat (Chris Carr, R, is running for governor)

Two Republicans are in the race to succeed Carr: state Sens. Bill Cowsert and Brian Strickland. Cowsert is the brother-in-law of outgoing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. The lone Democrat in the race is Bob Trammell, a former state House minority leader.

Republicans have managed to win statewide executive offices consistently in recent election cycles even as Georgia Democrats have fared better in federal-level statewide races. This has informed our decision to start this contest at Leans Republican. We’ll see if the midterm cycle in this purple state becomes competitive enough to move the contest to Toss-up.

TOSS-UP

Arizona: Kris Mayes, D

Mayes won her 2022 race by a 280-vote margin over Republican Abe Hamadeh, who’s now a member of Congress. She will likely be unopposed in the Democratic primary.

The perceived Republican front runner is state Senate President Warren Petersen, but he could face primary trouble: He successfully negotiated a budget compromise this session with Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, which brought him grief from more conservative elements of his party. The other announced Republican is Rodney Glassman, former Tucson city council member, veteran, and frequent candidate; this is the second straight election he’s run for AG, finishing second to Hamadeh in the 2022 Republican primary.

Minnesota: Keith Ellison, D

It’s unclear whether Democratic Gov. Tim Walz will run for a third term, and that decision could affect the AG race (Ellison could seek the governorship if it becomes open). For now, though, Ellison is among the most endangered incumbent Democratic AGs in the nation.

Ellison has won twice, but his victories have been narrow. In 2018, his 4-point win made him the worst-performing statewide Democrat that year, and he held onto his job by less than a percentage point in 2022. His 2022 opponent, Republican Jim Schultz, is said to be interested in running again, but he hasn’t made it official.

Wisconsin: Josh Kaul, D

The late-July decision by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers not to run for a third term has thrown the Wisconsin AG contest into uncertainty. Incumbent Josh Kaul would be in the top tier of contenders for governor if he decides to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. If that happens, the open-seat contest would be wide open on both sides. Wisconsin’s status as a hard-fought purple state suggests the AG race starts in the Toss-up category.

Michigan: Open seat (Dana Nessel, D, is term-limited)

Michigan nominates its AG candidates at party conventions rather than primaries.

On the Democratic side, three high-profile Democrats are running: Karen McDonald, prosecuting attorney in Oakland County (suburban Detroit); Eli Savit, prosecuting attorney in Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor); and former U. S. Attorney for Western Michigan Mark Totten, who was the unsuccessful Democratic nominee against Republican incumbent Bill Schuette in 2014.

Republicans have Kevin Kijewski, an attorney and former superintendent of Catholic schools in the Detroit Archdiocese; Doug Lloyd, prosecuting attorney in Eaton County (southwest of Lansing); and, perhaps most notably, 2022 nominee Matt DePerno, a 2020 election denier who currently faces felony charges for allegedly tampering with voting machines in a hotel room.

In purple Michigan, we’ll start this race at Toss-up, although DePerno in particular would be a poor choice for Republicans.

Nevada: Open seat (Aaron Ford, D, is running for governor)

The AG seat is up for grabs as Ford seeks to oust Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.

The Democrats have state Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro and state Treasurer Zach Conine in the race. Both are considered strong candidates. Frequent Republican candidate Danny Tarkanian is running, but party honchos are hoping that Wes Duncan, a northern Nevada city attorney who has announced for Washoe County District Attorney, can be convinced to switch to the AG race.

We’ll start this contest at Toss-up, but if a strong Republican fails to enter the race, it could shift towards the Democrats.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

Virginia: Jason Miyares, R

Virginia’s is the only AG race in 2025. The marquee contest—the open-seat governor’s race—Leans Democratic (according to the Crystal Ball), and that’s where we’ll start the AG race as well.

Incumbent Republican Miyares, who’s playing up a tough-on-crime approach that’s popular within his party, is probably in a better position than GOP gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, whose campaign has faced some turbulence. Miyares faces Democratic former state Del. Jay Jones, who has been closely tying himself to his party’s gubernatorial nominee, Abigail Spanberger. Four years ago, Jones unsuccessfully challenged incumbent AG Mark Herring in a primary. One notable recent development was that the Virginia Police Benevolent Association endorsed Spanberger in the gubernatorial election four years after backing the whole Republican statewide ticket, but they also stuck with Miyares in their AG endorsement. This is the split choice that some Republicans are hoping enough voters make too, and they cite 2001 and 2005 as years where Democrats won the governorship but Republicans won the AG race. This also came very close to happening in 2013—but that year, the same party (Democrats) won all three statewide races, albeit only by a tiny margin in the AG race. Overall, 2005 was the last Virginia election year that featured a split party result among the three statewide offices, and voters seem to be gravitating toward less ticket-splitting in these down-ballot statewide races (in both Virginia and elsewhere). Miyares does have incumbency and a significant financial advantage as of the most recent campaign finance reporting, and Republicans who may otherwise be pessimistic about the gubernatorial race hope Miyares can hang on, setting himself up for a gubernatorial bid in 2029 (Virginia governors cannot run for consecutive terms, so the governorship will be open regardless).

History generally gives a boost in Virginia to the non-presidential party, so while the AG race is competitive—and could end up closer than the governor’s race—the Democrats should have the wind at their backs, especially with Northern Virginia Democratic voters energized against Trump administration federal jobs and budget cuts.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

No races.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

New York: Tish James, D

New York has moved to the right in the past two election cycles, but James doesn’t have any challengers from any party yet. This race starts at Safe Democratic, but more than other races in this category, it has the potential to be a sleeper. The Trump administration is targeting James, which, electorally, would likely have the effect of helping her.

Rhode Island: Open seat (Peter Neronha, D, is term-limited)

Neronha’s departure leaves an open seat. The assumption is that it will remain blue, but the field to succeed Neronha is unsettled. Democratic state Reps. Robert Craven and Jason Knight have indicated interest, as have Neronha’s former policy chief, Keith Hoffman, and Providence City Council President John Igliozzi. Another potential Democratic candidate is former U.S. Attorney for Rhode Island Zachary Cunha. The 2022 Republican nominee, Charles Calenda, has also said he might make another run, though his 2022 performance was underwhelming. There’s no clear favorite and little name recognition among the candidates at this point, so the race—at least on the Democratic side—is wide open.

Colorado: Open seat (Phil Weiser, D, is running for governor)

Five Democrats (and no Republicans, so far) have lined up to succeed Weiser: Hetal Doshi, a former assistant U.S. Attorney for Colorado and deputy assistant attorney general at the U.S. Justice Department; Boulder County District Attorney Michael Dougherty; former state House Speaker Crisanta Duran; Secretary of State Jena Griswold; and attorney David Seligman.

Colorado has grown increasingly blue in recent election cycles, so despite the Democrats’ wide open primary, this seat seems poised to remain Democratic at the end of the day.

California: Rob Bonta, D

Bonta was appointed to his post by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021 and was validated by voters for a full term in 2022. He’s had a high profile in office, and that will likely continue as the state files lawsuits against the Trump administration. He’s a lock for another term.

Connecticut: William Tong, D

If Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont announces that he will seek a third term in 2026, as many expect, Tong will need to stay where he is. Tong, who has also served two terms, should have no trouble winning again in solidly blue Connecticut.

Delaware: Kathy Jennings, D

Jennings has announced she is running for a third term. She’s taken some heat for corporate-paid trips, but there’s no indication of a primary challenger or a strong Republican recruit to the race. Her 2022 Republican opponent, Julianne Murray, has been named interim U.S. Attorney in Delaware and is expected to be nominated formally by Trump, effectively taking her off the GOP candidate list for AG.

Illinois: Kwame Raoul, D

Illinois Republicans do not hold any statewide office, and Raoul should have a clear shot at the nomination as well as another term. A former state’s attorney in downstate Jackson County, Joe Cervantez (R), just announced a bid.

Maryland: Anthony Brown, D

Brown has filed to run for a second term, and there is no Republican who has surfaced as a potential challenger. Maryland has had barely any Republican attorneys general over the last century; expect that pattern to continue.

Massachusetts: Andrea Campbell, D

Campbell is popular with Democrats, especially the liberals who dominate the party’s primaries, thanks to her efforts to fight Trump administration policies. There is no announced Republican for the seat yet, but that likely won’t matter in one of the nation’s bluest states.

New Mexico: Raúl Torrez, D

Torrez has no announced Democratic or Republican rivals. For now, he looks set to coast to another term.

Vermont: Charity Clark, D

Clark should be a lock for reelection as AG, unless Republican Gov. Phil Scott decides against seeking another term in 2026, in which case Clark would be a top-tier contender to succeed him.

Louis Jacobson is a Senior Columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He is also the chief correspondent at the fact-checking website PolitiFact and is senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. He was senior author of the Almanac’s 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 editions and a contributing writer for the 2000 and 2004 editions.

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