Secretary of State Races: Election Denialism Could Cost GOP Again in Swing State Races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— This year, 26 states will hold elections for secretary of state. Currently, the GOP holds 25 secretary of state offices to 22 for the Democrats. Three states do not have a secretary of state.

— Our analysis suggests that six secretary of state races this year are competitive, including two in the Toss-up category.

— During the last election cycle that had this many secretary of state races, 2022, election denialism was a major issue, and in several purple states it helped Democrats defeat Republican nominees aligned with Donald Trump’s allegations of election fraud. With this installment, we have shifted two secretary of state races from Toss-up to Likely Democratic because Republicans nominated candidates associated with election denialism.

The updated line on secretary of state races

This year, 26 states will hold elections for secretary of state. In many states, this office handles a hodgepodge of noncontroversial duties, but most of them also oversee a more politically contentious portfolio: election administration.

As has been the case in recent years, Republicans hold an edge nationally in secretary of state seats: Today, the GOP holds 25 secretary of state offices to 22 for the Democrats. (This counts Pennsylvania in the Republican column; Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro appointed Al Schmidt, a Republican who broke with President Donald Trump over the president’s 2020 election fraud accusations, to the post.) Looking just at states where the secretary of state is elected rather than appointed, the GOP has a 19-16 edge. Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah do not have a secretary of state.

I have handicapped state secretary of state races for over a decade for Governing, the Cook Political Report, and, since the 2022 cycle, the Crystal Ball.

In this, my first assessment of the 2026 secretary of state races since August 2025, six states have competitive contests: two Toss-ups, one Leans Democratic seat, and three Leans Republican races.

The two Toss-up secretary of state races are in Indiana and Michigan; of the Toss-up contests, Indiana represents a shift from Likely Republican due to a complete makeover of the race. The Leans Republican races are in Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio. Of these, Iowa and Ohio are newly shifted from Likely Republican. The Leans Democratic race is in Wisconsin.

The remaining states that have secretary of state races this cycle include seven Safe Republican seats, two Likely Republican seats, three Likely Democratic seats, and eight Safe Democratic seats.

In a sign that secretary of state races continue to be considered political stepping stones, nine current occupants have given up their post to run for another office, including three for governor and one for attorney general.

During the last election cycle that had this many secretary of state races, 2022, election denialism was a major issue, and in several purple states it helped Democrats defeat Republican nominees aligned with Donald Trump’s allegations of election fraud. With this installment, we have shifted a pair of secretary of state races from Toss-up to Likely Democratic because Republicans nominated candidates associated with election denialism. Those states are Arizona and Nevada.

In general, each of the eight shifts since our last handicapping a year ago has benefited Democrats, not surprisingly given the expectation of a strong blue environment this year. Two shifts were from Safe Republican to Likely Republican; two shifts were from Likely Republican to Leans Republican; one shift was from Likely Republican to Toss-up; one shift was from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; and two shifts were from Toss-up to Likely Democratic.

Another oddity: In three states this year (Indiana, Nebraska, and South Dakota) incumbents were denied renomination either in a convention or by primary voters.

Here’s our breakdown of the 2026 secretary of state races, with thumbnail descriptions of each contest as it stands today.

Safe Republican (7 seats)

Idaho: Phil McGrane, R

McGrane, a first-term secretary of state, has been fortunate: He has resisted some of the Trump Administration’s pressures on state election administration, garnering him respect from non-Republicans, yet he’s taken relatively little heat from the MAGA base during his tenure. McGrane was not only spared a Republican primary challenge, but he also faces only a Democratic placeholder in the general election. His seat is about as safe as they get.

Arkansas: Open seat (Cole Jester, R, is running for state land commissioner)

Republican state Sen. Kim Hammer won the nomination and should easily defeat Democrat Kelly Grappe.

South Dakota: Open (Monae Johnson, R, was denied renomination)

Johnson failed to win renomination at the 2026 convention, losing to state Rep. Heather Baxter. (Johnson had won the Republican nomination four years earlier by defeating the then-incumbent, Steve Barnett, at the convention vote.) Baxter is a big favorite over Democrat Terrence Davis in November.

South Carolina: Mark Hammond, R

Hammond is the heavy favorite over Democrat Jason Belton, a labor activist.

Alabama: Open seat (Wes Allen, R, ran for lieutenant governor)

Caroleene Dobson, an attorney and rancher who unsuccessfully sought a U.S. House seat last cycle, won the primary for the GOP nomination and is the heavy favorite against Democratic attorney Wayne Rogers.

Wyoming: Open seat (Chuck Gray, R, is running for the U.S. House)

Converse County (Douglas) Commissioner Robert Short, an establishment candidate, won the GOP nomination last month. Short should have smooth sailing in November.

North Dakota: Michael Howe, R

Howe has earned bipartisan respect and is favored over state Senate Minority Caucus Leader Ryan Braunberger.

Likely Republican (2 seats)

Kansas: Open seat (Scott Schwab, R, ran for governor) (Shift from Safe Republican)

State Rep. Pat Proctor is the GOP nominee and will face off against former state Rep. Jennifer Day. How competitive this race gets for Democrats depends on how well the party runs in the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races; for now, competing aggressively for secretary of state is down the Democratic priority list, but those races could give Day some lift.

Nebraska: Open (Bob Evnen, R, was denied renomination) (Shift from Safe Republican)

In a surprise, Evnen lost the primary to businessman Scott Petersen. In another surprise, former state Sen. Bob Krist—who has variously been a Republican, Democrat and Independent—entered the race in early September with the America First Party. It’s too early to know how this sudden realignment will affect the election. For now, we’re putting the race between Petersen, Krist and Democrat Sarah Slattery in the Likely Republican category—a shift from Safe Republican—to reflect the greater uncertainty. We’ll consider further shifts once the three-way contest develops.

Leans Republican (3 seats)

Iowa: Paul Pate, R (Shift from Likely Republican)

Iowa is chock full of competitive races this fall, but it’s unclear whether the secretary of state contest will become as competitive as the other ones, including the gubernatorial, Senate, and House races. Pate is currently serving in his third straight term in the office and fourth overall (he served from 1995 to 1999 in the job and won it again in 2014, 2018, and 2022). He’s also generally kept his head down, potentially giving him a better shot than other Iowa Republicans at surviving the blue midterm. However, Pate faces a credible candidate in Ryan Peterman (D), a Naval Academy alum and helicopter pilot who is making his first run for office.

Ohio: Open seat (Frank LaRose, R, is running for state auditor) (Shift from Likely Republican)

Republican state Treasurer Robert Sprague faces Democratic state Rep. Allison Russo, who previously served as the state House minority leader. Democrats are buoyed by competitive gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races in Ohio, and the party may decide to prioritize the secretary of state position down the stretch because it is part of Ohio’s redistricting board. Sprague is respected but fairly low-profile; Russo, by contrast, has made some headlines during her tenure in the state House.

Georgia: Open seat (Brad Raffensperger, R, ran for governor)

State Rep. Tim Fleming, who previously served as chief of staff to Gov. Brian Kemp, won the Republican nomination, while former Fulton County (Atlanta) judge Penny Brown Reynolds won the Democratic nomination. With a slate full of notable races, including the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests, the secretary of state race has not attracted much attention and will have to vie for TV ad space against those bigger contests. Until this race becomes more fully formed, we’ll keep it at Lean Republican.

Toss-up (2 seats)

Indiana: Open (Diego Morales, R, was denied renomination) (Shift from Likely Republican)

This could be the most interesting secretary of state contest this year.

Morales won the seat in 2022 after keeping the Republican incumbent from being renominated at a state convention. Then, in 2026, the same thing happened to him. Morales’s bid for another term was sunk by a string of controversies including his acquisition of a luxury car, international travel, and the hiring of family members.

This has turned into a three-way contest featuring former Republican congressional aide Max Engling; Democrat Beau Bayh, scion of the three-generation Bayh political family; and Greg Ballard, a former Indianapolis mayor and Republican turned Independent running as a nonpartisan problem solver. Conceivably, any of them could win.

Engling emerged from a contested convention with the support of Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN), for whom he used to work.

Bayh is one of two twin sons of former Democratic Gov. and Sen. Evan Bayh and grandson of the late Democratic Sen. Birch Bayh. Beau Bayh is a Marine veteran (his twin brother Nick served in the Army). To win the nomination at the convention, Bayh had to hold off a surprisingly strong run by a challenger to his left, Army Reserve veteran Blythe Potter.

Ballard, who like Bayh is a Marine veteran, played down partisanship as Indianapolis mayor. He managed the difficult process of securing a ballot spot as an independent in order to run this year. It’s unclear whether he could take more votes from Engling or Bayh, or perhaps win the race himself.

With little in the way of competitive races in Indiana this year, the secretary of state race will get the lion’s share of the attention. And we have no clue who will win. This is a pure Toss-up.

Michigan: Open seat (Jocelyn Benson, D, is running for governor)

Both parties picked credible candidates in party nominating conventions: Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist for the Democrats and Macomb County Clerk Anthony Forlini for the Republicans, a much more mainstream nominee than the candidate the Michigan GOP went with in 2022. We’ll keep this in Toss-up until we see a trend develop in the fall.

Leans Democratic (1 seat)

Wisconsin: Open seat (Sarah Godlewski, D, is running for lieutenant governor) (Shift from Toss-up)

On the Democratic side, Milwaukee alderwoman and former state Rep. JoCasta Zamarripa was unopposed in the primary. On the Republican side, businessman and activist Jay Schroeder took nearly half the primary vote in a four-way race. Democrats have a small edge here, so we are moving the race to Leans Democratic. This is Wisconsin’s only statewide race with a minor party candidate on the ballot: Pete Karas of the Green Party.

A reminder: Elections in Wisconsin, unlike most states, are not overseen by the secretary of state’s office.

Likely Democratic (3 seats)

Minnesota: Steve Simon, D

The low-key Simon is well-placed to win a new term as secretary of state against his GOP opponent Tad Jude, a former state legislator. An August SurveyUSA poll for KSTP found Simon up, 41%-34%.

Nevada: Cisco Aguilar, D (Shift from Toss-up)

Aguilar will have plenty of money to fend off the surprise winner of the GOP primary, Jim Marchant. This is a rematch of the 2022 race. The contest four years ago was quite narrow, but observers don’t expect Marchant’s election denialism to wear as well this year in a bluer environment.

Arizona: Adrian Fontes, D (Shift from Toss-up)

Like Aguilar in Nevada, Fontes caught a break when state Rep. Alexander Kolodin, an election denier, won the GOP primary.

Safe Democratic (8 seats)

Colorado: Open seat (Jena Griswold, D, is running for attorney general)

Jefferson County Clerk Amanda Gonzalez won the Democratic primary convincingly; she is heavily favored over Republican political consultant James Wiley.

New Mexico: Open seat (Maggie Toulouse Oliver, D, is term-limited)

Doña Ana County Clerk Amanda López Askin won the Democratic nomination and is favored over Republican nominee Ramona Goolsby, a retired nurse practitioner and Army veteran.

Illinois: Alexi Giannoulias, D

Giannoulias, who is running for this office while also seeking the Chicago mayoralty in a 2027 election, should have no trouble winning another term over the Republican nominee, Diane Harris, a Joliet Junior College trustee.

California: Shirley Weber, D

Weber was appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, then won a term of her own in 2022. She received 59% of the June top-two primary vote and is heavily favored over the Republican second-place finisher, Orange County Supervisor Donald Wagner, in November.

Connecticut: Stephanie Thomas, D

Thomas is the heavy favorite to win a second term as secretary of state over Republican Peter Lumaj, a frequent candidate.

Vermont: Sarah Copeland Hanzas, D

Copeland Hanzas is solid for reelection.

Rhode Island: Gregg Amore, D

Amore, a history teacher, coach, and state representative before winning election as secretary of state in 2022, has no primary or general election competition; he is as safe as can be.

Massachusetts: Bill Galvin, D

Galvin is an institution in Massachusetts politics, having won his first election as secretary of state in 1994. He is a shoo-in for another term.

Bonus: Other races that could determine the secretary of state

Six states with gubernatorial elections this year give governors the power to appoint the secretary of state.

Of these, Republicans are favored in Oklahoma and (to a slightly lesser degree) in Florida and Texas. Democrats are strongly favored in Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania.

In three states, the legislature chooses the secretary of state. New Hampshire (currently controlled by Republicans) and Maine (currently controlled by Democrats) have at least somewhat competitive battles for control of the legislature in 2026. Tennessee, meanwhile, is set to remain strongly Republican.

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Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate.