Democratic Outlook Brightens in Races for Vital State AG Posts

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— This year, 30 states are holding elections for attorney general. Currently, the GOP holds 27 attorney general offices to 23 for the Democrats (counting an independent in Hawaii who was appointed by Democratic Gov. Josh Green).

— Our analysis suggests that eight AG races this year are currently competitive, up from seven when we last looked at these races a year ago. Two are Toss-ups, down from five a year ago, with three of last year’s Toss-ups shifting to Leans Democratic.

— All the shifts we’ve made in this analysis benefit the Democrats. In addition to the three races that switched from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, two races shifted from Safe Republican to Likely Republican and two races shifted from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

The races for state AG

This year, 30 states will hold elections for attorney general, a traditionally influential post that handles state-level criminal and civil cases.

As has been the case in recent years, Republicans hold an edge nationally in AG seats: Today, the GOP holds 27 attorney general offices to 23 for the Democrats (counting an independent in Hawaii who was appointed by Democratic Gov. Josh Green). Among the 43 elected (rather than appointed) AG offices, the GOP also holds the edge: 23 seats to 20 for the Democrats.

I have handicapped state AG races for over a decade for Governing, the Cook Political Report, and, since the 2022 cycle, the Crystal Ball.

In this, my first assessment of the 2026 AG races since last August, we find eight states with competitive AG races: two Toss-ups, three Leans Republican, and three Leans Democratic.

Both Toss-up races are currently held by Democrats, with one of them an open-seat race (Michigan; the other involves an incumbent facing reelection in Minnesota). Mirroring the national partisan split, five of the competitive AG races are in states that were considered presidential battlegrounds in 2024: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. (The other two presidential battleground states, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, do not have AG races this year.)

The two Toss-up AG races are in Michigan and Minnesota. The Leans Republican races are in Georgia (a holdover from our last assessment) and Kansas and Iowa (which are newly shifted from Likely Republican). The Leans Democratic races are in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, all of which we are shifting from Toss-up.

The historical pattern for midterm elections is that parties in control of the White House tend to fare poorly. This should give a boost to Democrats, though the array of seats up this year make it an uphill battle for Democrats to pull even, or pull ahead, in state AG seats nationally.

In a sign that AG races continue to be considered political stepping stones, eight current AGs are giving up their post to run for higher office: five for governor, two for the Senate, and one for the House. A dozen of the 50 currently serving governors also served as their state’s attorney general at some point.

The remaining states with AG races this cycle include 8 Safe Republican seats, 3 Likely Republican seats, and 11 Safe Democratic seats. There are no Likely Democratic seats at this point.

Here’s our breakdown of the 2026 AG races, with thumbnail descriptions of each contest as it stands today.

Safe Republican (8 seats)

Arkansas: Tim Griffin, R

Griffin faced no primary opposition and has no Democratic challenger in November. He is expected to seek the governorship eventually.

South Dakota: Open (Marty Jackley, R, is running for the U.S. House)

The Republican convention selected Lance Russell as its candidate. He’s the state’s attorney for Fall River and Oglala Lakota counties and a former member of both chambers of the state legislature. He ran unsuccessfully for AG in 2018. Russell has faced some controversies in his career, including judicial discipline, and he was even banned from the state House’s Republican caucus. But he’s a shoo-in for November, as the Democrats are not fielding a candidate.

Alabama: Open (Steve Marshall, R, ran for Senate)

Katherine Robertson, the chief counsel to the departing AG and recipient of his primary endorsement, won the GOP primary and will face Democratic former state Rep. Jeff McLaughlin. Robertson will be the heavy favorite in November.

North Dakota: Drew Wrigley, R

Wrigley has ruffled some feathers in office, but those won’t be enough to threaten his reelection bid against Democratic attorney Tim Lamb.

Nebraska: Mike Hilgers, R

While Republican U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts faces a competitive two-way contest against Independent Dan Osborn, Hilgers should have no trouble defeating Democratic attorney Jocelyn Brasher for another term.

Oklahoma: Open (Gentner Drummond, R, is running for governor)

Jon Echols, a former House majority floor leader, defeated the appointed secretary of energy and environment, Jeff Starling, by double digits in the Republican primary. He is the heavy favorite over Democrat Nick Coffey in the general election.

South Carolina: Open (Alan Wilson, R, is running for governor)

David Stumbo, a regional prosecutor, will be heavily favored over Democrat Richard Hricik, a low-profile lawyer who has pledged to accept no campaign donations.

Idaho: Raúl Labrador, R

Labrador made the safer choice to run again for AG instead of running for governor. He’s had a relatively quiet year so far and was unopposed in the primary. The Democratic nominee, Lori Hickman, is more than a placeholder: She’s campaigning vigorously and has support from independents and disaffected Republicans, including many of the same people who support the independent candidates for governor and Senate in Idaho. But she has little organization or financing and only got started in earnest a couple of months ago. Until we see movement, we’ll keep this contest in Safe Republican.

Likely Republican (3 seats)

Texas: Open seat (Ken Paxton, R, is running for Senate) (Shift from Safe Republican)

Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton will face Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson. Neither candidate has run a statewide race before. In a vacuum, Middleton would be the easy favorite, but much will depend on how this year’s top-of-the-ballot races go. Democrat James Talarico is making a serious run for U.S. Senate, and while Gov. Greg Abbott remains the favorite for another term, polling has shown some softness in his electoral position. If the cycle is bad enough for Texas Republicans, Middleton could become collateral damage. While that’s far from a certainty at this point, the possibility is enough for us to shift this contest to Likely Republican.

Florida: James Uthmeier, R (Shift from Safe Republican)

Uthmeier was appointed to the post by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to succeed Ashley Moody, whom DeSantis had tapped to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated when Marco Rubio became secretary of state. Uthmeier previously served as DeSantis’s chief of staff.

While he is favored in the general election and has some accomplishments to tout on crime and other topics, he does come with some baggage. Uthmeier helped come up with the idea for Alligator Alcatraz, a high-profile detention center in South Florida that was part of President Trump’s efforts at mass deportation. Uthmeier calls the now-shuttered facility a success, but controversy has dogged it, including its estimated cost of $1 billion. He has also taken hits for a lucrative teaching gig at the University of Florida Law School and for the controversy over Hope Florida, a program spearheaded by DeSantis’s wife, Casey.

In November, he will face former state Sen. José Javier Rodríguez, who was considered a rising star in the state party before narrowly losing his Miami-area seat in 2020. Paradoxically, the Democrats’ improved (if still underdog) positions in the gubernatorial and Senate races could hurt Rodríguez’s prospects by making it hard for him to break through the media clutter. This is exacerbated by Uthmeier’s significant fundraising edge. A Democratic win for AG would probably require an across-the-board Democratic wave in the Sunshine State. We’re shifting this contest to Likely Republican.

Ohio: Open seat (Andy Wilson, R, is not seeking a full term)

Current AG Andy Wilson was appointed to finish out the term of two-term AG Dave Yost (R), who left office early to take another job. Republicans cleared the field for Keith Faber, the state auditor and former Senate president.

In November, he will face Democrat John Kulewicz, a relatively low-profile attorney who Democratic observers considered the stronger of two primary candidates. Democrats are making real runs for both the open governorship and the seat of GOP Sen. Jon Husted, and Kulewicz would need a strong tide to push him over the finish line. For now, we’re keeping this at Likely Republican.

Leans Republican (3 seats)

Kansas: Kris Kobach, R (Shift from Likely Republican)

Kobach’s hardline approach to such issues as immigration were once out of the Republican mainstream, but his style and substance is more at home in the MAGA-focused second Trump term. The question is how well that will play in a more Democratic-leaning midterm. Kobach faces a rematch with the Democrat who came within 1.6 percentage points of defeating him four years ago: former law enforcement officer Chris Mann. Democrats getting a credible contender for U.S. Senate, as well as governor, probably helps Mann’s odds. We’re shifting this race to Leans Republican.

Iowa: Brenna Bird, R (Shift from Likely Republican)

Bird faces Democratic former state Rep. Nate Willems. Bird is not as vulnerable for Republicans as either of the Republican open seats at the top of the ballot—governor or U.S. senator—but the overall boost Democrats are getting in the state from their gubernatorial and Senate candidates could filter down to this race. Bird has been an eager supporter of Trump, which could put her at some jeopardy in a blue midterm. We’re moving this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

Georgia: Open seat (Chris Carr, R, ran for governor)

State Sen. Brian Strickland won the Republican primary and will face Democratic state Rep. Tanya Miller in November. Republicans have managed to win statewide executive offices consistently in recent election cycles even as Georgia Democrats have fared better in federal-level statewide races. With gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races soaking up most of the attention and advertising time this year, it will be hard for either AG candidate to get their message out. We’ll see how the overall mood develops in the state, but for now, we’re keeping this race at Leans Republican.

Toss-up (2 seats)

Michigan: Open seat (Dana Nessel, D, is term-limited)

Democratic Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) prosecutor Eli Savit faces Republican Eaton County (Lansing suburbs) prosecutor Doug Lloyd. Savit is considered solidly liberal, while Lloyd is a fairly traditional Republican. This contest may be shaped by how the U.S. Senate race plays out; the Senate contest also has a similar breakdown in nominees, which could throw a wrench into what could have been a strong, across-the-board Democratic election in Michigan. We’ll keep this in Toss-up for now.

Minnesota: Keith Ellison, D

Ellison has won twice, but his victories have been narrow. A new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showed him tied with Republican Ron Schutz despite Democrats leading the gubernatorial and Senate races. This is a blue midterm election, but it may be less strong in Minnesota, where the electorate has some fatigue with outgoing Democratic Gov. Tim Walz. For now, we’re keeping this one at Toss-up.

Leans Democratic (3 seats)

Wisconsin: Josh Kaul, D (Shifts from Toss-up)

Kaul has a rematch against Eric Toney. It will be competitive in this purple state, but with establishment favorite David Crowley winning the gubernatorial primary over left-wing candidate Francesca Hong, Kaul should have an easier time in November than he might have, and he also benefits from incumbency.

Nevada: Open seat (Aaron Ford, D, is running for governor) (Shifts from Toss-up)

State Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro won the Democratic primary with surprising ease, giving her momentum heading into the general election against Adriana Guzmán Fralick, a low-profile ally of Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. Fralick has a good reputation but will need Lombardo’s help to raise money and stay competitive with Cannizzaro.

Arizona: Kris Mayes, D (Shifts from Toss-up)

Republican primary voters gave the nomination to state Senate President Warren Petersen. Mayes may be acceptable to a sliver of disenchanted Republicans who appreciate her investigation of Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs over pay-to-play allegations. Combined with the blue midterm environment and a couple other statewide nominees on the MAGA side of the Arizona GOP, we’re moving this from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

Likely Democratic (0 seats)

No races

Safe Democratic (11 seats)

Rhode Island: Open seat (Peter Neronha, D, is term-limited)

Rhode Island has a four-way Democratic primary on Sept. 9. It has received much less attention than the gubernatorial primary, in which Helena Foulkes has led incumbent Gov. Dan McKee by wide margins. Keith Hoffmann, former chief of policy under Neronha, is the financial frontrunner and has made the biggest TV ad buy; he also has endorsements from SEIU and the AFT. Close behind in cash are Kimberly Ahern, a former special assistant AG and former chair of the Cannabis Control Commission, and state Rep. Joseph J. Solomon Jr. State Rep. Jason Knight, who authored the state’s 2025 assault-style weapons ban, trails in fundraising. An early August poll by Salve Regina University’s Pell Center found Ahern leading Hoffman, 23%-13% but a full 46% of respondents were undecided.

On the Republican side, Alan L. Gordon, a past candidate for the cannabis-focused Compassion Party, is running essentially unfunded.

Colorado: Open seat (Phil Weiser, D, is running for governor)

Secretary of State Jena Griswold is seeking to move laterally to AG; she will be favored in increasingly blue Colorado over Republican prosecutor Michael Allen.

Connecticut: William Tong, D

Tong has been almost a daily presence in Connecticut media due to his efforts to oppose federal executive orders and initiatives. He’s won some battles and lost others, but he has increased his statewide name recognition significantly. In November, he will face attorney John Bolton, who came to prominence for representing a client who unsuccessfully sued the state for its response to COVID-19. It has been decades since a Republican mounted a serious effort for Connecticut AG, and it seems unlikely that Bolton will reverse this pattern.

New Mexico: Raúl Torrez, D

Torrez is heavily favored over Republican attorney Sam Kane.

New York: Tish James, D

New York has moved to the right in the past two election cycles, but the Trump administration has targeted James, which paradoxically could help her electorally back home. She should have no problem defeating Republican Saritha Komatireddy.

California: Rob Bonta, D

Bonta was appointed to his post by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021 and was validated by voters for a full term in 2022. He’s had a high profile in office, including from lawsuits he’s filed against the Trump administration. He’s essentially a lock for another term against former Huntington Beach City Attorney and former federal official Michael Gates.

Illinois: Kwame Raoul, D

Raoul will have no problem defeating former Chicago Alderman Bob Fioretti in November.

Massachusetts: Andrea Campbell, D

Campbell is all but assured a victory over Republican attorney Mike Walsh.

Maryland: Anthony Brown, D

Brown is a virtual lock over Republican attorney Jim Rutledge. Maryland has had barely any Republican attorneys general over the last century; expect that pattern to continue.

Vermont: Charity Clark, D

Clark is solid for reelection.

Delaware: Kathy Jennings, D

In a surprise, Dwayne J. Bensing, who has served as legal director for the state ACLU, filed in June to challenge Jennings in the Democratic primary, arguing that she has not been aggressive enough in challenging Trump, that she’s not sufficiently transparent, and that it’s time for someone younger in the office. He is seen as running against Jennings from her left, but she is well known among voters and is considered a solid campaigner. A third candidate, domestic violence victim rights advocate Patty Rickman, has filed but has little profile coming into the race. Whoever wins the primary is guaranteed the office in November because no Republican filed to run.

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Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate.