Decade-Plus Winning Streaks Could be at Risk in the 2026 Midterms

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The 2026 election might spell the end of a number of long-running partisan winning streaks in races for senator and governor.

— Given what is likely to be a blue midterm environment, more longstanding Republican winning streaks are at risk this year, though a few Democratic ones could be as well.

— We look at competitive or potentially competitive races this year where a winning streak has lasted at least a decade. Each of the ones we explore began before the arrival of Donald Trump as a presidential candidate.

Partisan streaks that could end in 2026

Political analysts expect the 2026 midterms to be volatile. President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, coupled with his party’s currently narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate, makes it plausible that one or both chambers of Congress could flip to Democrats.

But 2026 could also be notable for something else: The election might end a lot of long-running partisan winning streaks for Senate and governor.

Not surprisingly, given the wind at the Democrats’ backs this year, most of the winning streaks at risk are held by Republicans. Interestingly, each of them began before the arrival of Donald Trump as a presidential candidate and the upheaval that triggered in American politics. Some date back literally decades.

To compile the list below, we looked at Senate and gubernatorial contests this year that (1) are at least somewhat competitive (though the degree of competitiveness varies, a lot), and (2) have one party that has not occupied the seat for at least a decade. “Not occupying the seat for at least a decade” by nature also means that the losing party has failed to win the seat in an election for at least a decade and a half.

No one knows how many of these streaks will end in November. But here’s a rundown of the durable streaks worth watching in 2026, listed in descending order by length of streak.

Table 1 shows the streaks that we will discuss in more detail below.

Table 1: Partisan winning streaks that could be at risk in 2026

Source: Author’s research

Senate races

Democratic winning streak at risk

Michigan

Last Republican to win: Spencer Abraham

Elected 1994 (32 years ago)

Left office 2001 (25 years ago)

This open seat due to Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’s retirement might ordinarily be straightforward for the Democrats to hold during a blue midterm election, but left-wing candidate Abdul El-Sayed is a strong contender for the Democratic nomination. A risky Democratic nominee may give former Rep. and 2024 GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers a better chance of prevailing. The past couple of Senate contests in this purple state have narrowly broken in Democrats’ favor.

Crystal Ball rating: Toss-up

Minnesota

Last Republican to win: Norm Coleman

Elected 2002 (24 years ago)

Left office 2009 (17 years ago)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, a moderate, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a progressive, are facing off in the primary; the GOP frontrunner is retired sportscaster Michele Tafoya. Either Democrat would be favored over Tafoya, but if everything goes right for the GOP, they have an outside chance of flipping the seat.

Crystal Ball rating: Likely Democratic

Republican winning streak at risk

Kansas

Last Democrat to win: George McGill

Elected 1932 (94 years ago)

Left office 1939 (87 years ago)

OK, we admit it—this one is not one of the core Senate battleground seats in 2026. But in a late move, a prominent megachurch pastor, Adam Hamilton, is running as a Democrat against first-term Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Hamilton seems to have a well-organized and well-funded campaign, and if he wins the primary and proves himself as a campaigner, he has an outside shot of making this contest competitive. Remarkably, even as Kansas voters have been open to electing governors of both parties, they have not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the landslide election that brought Franklin D. Roosevelt to the White House.

Crystal Ball rating: Safe Republican

Texas

Last Democrat to win: Lloyd Bentsen

Elected 1988 (38 years ago)

Last Democrat to serve: Bob Krueger, who was appointed to succeed Bentsen in 1993 following Bentsen’s appointment as Treasury secretary; Krueger left office after losing a special election in 1993 to Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison (33 years ago)

Democrats have been foiled for decades in Texas; the last time they won any statewide office was in 1994, and the party’s drought for Senate races has lasted even longer. Could 2026 be the year that changes? Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP nominee for an open seat, faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a titanic battle; Democrats see the combination of Paxton’s personal baggage and the blue midterm environment as establishing the right conditions for victory. Polling so far indicates that the race is close.

Crystal Ball rating: Leans Republican

Maine

Last Democrat to win: George Mitchell

Elected 1988 (38 years ago)

Left office 1995 (31 years ago)

Maine requires an asterisk: Sen. Angus King, first elected in 2012, is a nominal independent, but he caucuses with Democrats. Still, for what has become a firmly blue state in presidential elections, it’s notable that the last time an actual Democratic Senate nominee in Maine won an election was Mitchell in 1988. This year, Democrats are targeting incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R), who first won her seat in 1996.

Last night, Graham Platner, a Democrat who easily won his party’s primary even as he constantly generated unfavorable headlines, announced that he would suspend his campaign—on Monday, reporting surfaced that he had allegedly sexually assaulted a woman in 2021. Though this is a developing situation, it seems likely Maine Democrats will select a replacement nominee via a convention sometime in the coming weeks.

Crystal Ball rating: Toss-up

Nebraska

Last Democrat to win: Ben Nelson

Elected 2006 (20 years ago)

Left office 2013 (13 years ago)

A Democrat won’t have a shot at winning this year’s race featuring incumbent Pete Ricketts, but the Republicans could potentially lose it. Independent Dan Osborn—who in 2024 held incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer to a 53%-47% victory in this solidly red state—is running again, with the tacit support of Democrats. 

Crystal Ball rating: Likely Republican

North Carolina

Last Democrat to win: Kay Hagan

Elected 2008 (18 years ago)

Left office 2015 (11 years ago)

This may be the streak on this list that is most at risk, given former two-term Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s consistent polling leads over former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley in this open-seat contest. In the years since Hagan’s 2008 breakthrough, Democrats have lost 5 consecutive Senate races in the Tar Heel State, although they have usually kept the margins close. Those previous close calls also all came in cycles that were less blue-leaning than what 2026 is likely to be.

Crystal Ball rating: Leans Democratic

Alaska

Last Democrat to win: Mark Begich

Elected 2008 (18 years ago)

Left office 2015 (11 years ago)

Incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan faces a challenge from the state’s strongest possible Democrat, former Rep. Mary Peltola. Polls show a close general election contest.

Crystal Ball rating: Toss-up

Iowa

Last Democrat to win: Tom Harkin

Elected 2008 (18 years ago)

Left office 2015 (11 years ago)

For this open seat, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R, IA-2) faces Paralympics gold medalist and state Rep. Josh Turek (D). Iowa seems like it might be ready to swing back to the Democrats after a long stretch of Republican leadership; both the Senate and the gubernatorial races are highly competitive (see below). 

Crystal Ball rating: Leans Republican

Gubernatorial races

Democratic winning streak at risk

Oregon

Last Republican to win: Vic Atiyeh

Elected 1982 (44 years ago)

Left office 1987 (39 years ago)

Oregon Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is a clear favorite in her bid for a second term, but there’s an outside chance she could lose in what will be a rematch with her main 2022 opponent, Republican Christine Drazan. Though Oregon is a bright blue state in presidential politics, Democrats have won every gubernatorial contest there this century by only single-digit percentage margins—this is where 2026’s result also seems likely to land. However, if a Republican does manage to win in November, they would become the first in four and a half decades to do so.

Crystal Ball rating: Likely Democratic

Republican winning streak at risk

Georgia

Last Democrat to win: Roy Barnes

Elected 1998 (28 years ago)

Left office 2003 (23 years ago)

Georgia has become increasingly important for Democrats in presidential elections, and is poised to retain two Democratic senators after the 2026 elections. Are statewide elected offices next? Last year, Georgia Democrats won their first statewide races in decades when they took two public service commission seats. It remains to be seen whether former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee, can defeat deep-pocketed Republican health care executive Rick Jackson for the governorship this year, though Bottoms has a modest polling lead over Jackson so far.

Crystal Ball rating: Toss-up

Alaska

Last Democrat to win: Tony Knowles

Elected 1998 (28 years ago)

Left office 2002 (24 years ago)

Like Maine’s Senate seat, this position requires an asterisk: now-former Gov. Bill Walker was elected in 2014 and served a single term as an independent; his tenure represented a brief break in an otherwise all-GOP streak. But Knowles was the last governor with a Democratic affiliation to win the governorship. This year’s race has a long list of candidates, including a few with familiar names: the Democratic frontrunner is Tom Begich, brother of the aforementioned Mark, while Walker is running as an independent. As with the Senate race above, Alaska will vote using a top-four primary ahead of November’s ranked-choice general election.

Crystal Ball rating: Likely Republican

Iowa

Last Democrat to win: Chet Culver

Elected 2006 (20 years ago)

Left office 2011 (15 years ago)

Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand has led Republican Zach Lahn consistently in the polls. The last cycle when Democrats won the state’s governorship, 2006, was also a blue-leaning year where the office was open.

Crystal Ball rating: Toss-up

Ohio

Last Democrat to win: Ted Strickland

Elected 2006 (20 years ago)

Left office 2011 (15 years ago)

Democrat Amy Acton has become a surprisingly strong contender in red Ohio, with most polls showing her either a few points ahead of, or a few points behind, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who ran for president in 2024. State Republicans’ gubernatorial success in predates the broader red trend that Ohio has seen in the Trump era: now-former Gov. Ted Strickland’s (D) single term was the only departure from an otherwise unbroken streak of GOP wins dating back to the 1990 elections.

Crystal Ball rating: Leans Republican

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See Other Commentaries by Louis Jacobson.

Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate.