If the Data Are Reassuring, Show Us the Data

Nearly five years after COVID upended the world, one fact has become impossible to ignore: Americans no longer trust their public health institutions.

Rasmussen Reports’ latest national survey found that 47 percent of Americans believe COVID-19 vaccines likely caused a significant number of unexplained deaths during the pandemic. That finding does not prove the vaccines caused those deaths. Public opinion is not scientific evidence, but it reveals something equally important.

Nearly half the country no longer believes that government health authorities have been fully transparent about vaccine safety. That should concern everyone.

As a physician, I understand the critical distinction between association and causation. Medicine is built on that distinction. Just because one event follows another does not mean the first caused the second, but medicine is also built on another equally important principle. When unexpected statistical patterns emerge, they warrant careful investigation.

Imagine flipping a coin. If it lands heads 10 times in a row, that outcome is statistically possible. It doesn’t prove the coin is weighted. Flip it another 10 times, and every toss is still heads. Now what?

A scientist doesn’t immediately conclude that the coin is fraudulent. Neither does the scientist dismiss anyone who asks questions as a conspiracy theorist. The appropriate response is to examine the coin.

That’s how science works. Statistical anomalies do not establish causation, but they do demand explanation.

Throughout the pandemic, independent researchers around the world have examined population-level health data, including all-cause mortality and other trends, and have raised questions they believe warrant further investigation. Whether those observations ultimately reflect causation, coincidence, bias, or confounding variables is precisely what rigorous scientific inquiry is meant to determine.

The response to those questions should never be, “Trust us.” It should be, “Let’s examine the data together.”

Instead, many Americans came away with the opposite impression. Questions were sometimes dismissed before they were investigated. Critics were labeled misinformation spreaders before their analyses were debated. 

Requests for underlying data sometimes escalated into prolonged legal battles rather than routine scientific exchanges, including litigation over FDA records related to COVID-19 vaccine approval. If confidence in the science is justified, transparency should reinforce – not threaten – that confidence. That is not how science earns the public's confidence.

Science is strongest when it welcomes scrutiny rather than fearing it.

Every medical paper I have ever read – and every one I have published – includes a Materials and Methods section before presenting the results. That section is there for a reason. Science is not simply about announcing conclusions. It is about enabling other investigators to reproduce the analysis.

Independent researchers should be able to examine the same data, apply the same methods, and determine whether they reach the same conclusions. Reproducibility is a cornerstone of science. Public health should be held to no lower scientific standard.

If government agencies are confident in their conclusions on vaccine safety, they should welcome independent analysis rather than resist it.

Transparency strengthens confidence. Secrecy weakens it.

Trust works much like a marriage does. Imagine one spouse who suddenly keeps a phone locked, deletes text messages, changes their story, and insists there is nothing to discuss. Perhaps there is a perfectly innocent explanation, perhaps there isn’t, but secrecy itself alters the relationship. Eventually, suspicion becomes almost inevitable – not because wrongdoing has been proven, but because openness has vanished. The government is no different.

People naturally become suspicious when they believe information is being concealed. Some suspicions will turn out to be unfounded, others may ultimately be validated. The point is that speculation flourishes wherever transparency is lacking.

The Rasmussen Reports survey does not measure vaccine safety. It measures public trust – or, more accurately, its absence.

This loss of confidence extends far beyond vaccines. When the next pandemic occurs, public health officials will again recommend vaccines, mitigation strategies, and emergency measures. Those recommendations may be entirely appropriate, but recommendations are effective only when the public believes those making them.

Public relations campaigns cannot restore trust. Trust cannot be rebuilt by censorship. Trust cannot be mandated by government decree. Trust must be earned.

If the available evidence supports the safety of COVID vaccines, publish the data in full. If unexpected patterns have reasonable explanations, explain them openly. If independent analyses contain statistical errors, publicly demonstrate those errors.

If legitimate safety concerns exist, they warrant rigorous investigation. If errors were made, they should be corrected. If data were intentionally manipulated or concealed, accountability should follow.

That is how science resolves disagreements. That is how confidence is restored. Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

The Rasmussen Reports survey doesn’t establish that COVID vaccines caused widespread harm, but it does establish something arguably as important. Millions of Americans now believe that government health authorities have not been forthcoming. Whether that belief is justified or not, it represents a profound challenge for public health.

Science advances through transparency, replication, and open inquiry – not by asking the public to accept conclusions on authority alone.

If the data are reassuring, show us the data. Trust is earned through evidence, and cannot be mandated by authority.

Brian C. Joondeph, MD, is a Colorado-based ophthalmologist who writes frequently about medicine, science, and public policy.

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