What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls

Saturday, January 28, 2012

President Obama on Tuesday night delivered his final State of the Union speech before Election Day, and the public seems receptive to at least two of his major economic initiatives. At the same time, the race between the men who want his job has seesawed, with the latest numbers from Florida’s upcoming primary suggesting Newt Gingrich’s surge may have crested.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Likely U.S. Voters agree with the president’s proposal that wealthy Americans pay at least 30% of their income in federal taxes. But 49% also think federal, state and local governments combined shouldn’t take more than 30% of anyone’s income in taxes. These findings suggest that while voters feel generally that the wealthy aren’t paying their fair share, they remain more interested in fairness than in being punitive.

The president in his speech also called for corporate tax credits and tax reductions to encourage an increase in U.S. manufacturing jobs, and 55% of Americans agree that government funds should be used to subsidize U.S. manufacturers this way. An overwhelming 90% say it is at least somewhat important for the United States to have a major manufacturing and industrial base, but just 54% believe it’s at least somewhat likely the country will have that base once again.

Voters are less happy with Obama’s decision to delay the construction of an oil pipeline from Canada to Texas for environmental reasons. Supporters say the project will lessen America’s overseas oil dependence and create up to 20,000 new jobs. Fifty-six percent (56%) favor building the Keystone XL pipeline and think it will be good for the economy. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say creating new jobs is more important than environmental protection.

The president continues to endorse a path to economic recovery with government fully involved. The candidates seeking the Republican presidential nomination argue that it’s best to get the government out of the way. When it comes to money issues, voters still prefer the more conservative course. Forty-two percent (42%) say they are fiscal conservatives when it comes to issues such as taxes, government spending and business regulation. Just as many (42%) describe themselves as fiscal moderates. Only 11% are fiscal liberals. The gap remains much narrower when it comes to social issues such as abortion, public prayer and church-state topics.

Speaking of money issues, Scott Rasmussen’s new book, “The People’s Money,” is being released next week. In it, he argues the current fiscal crisis was caused by the Political Class pursuing its own agenda rather than listening to the American people. Looking ahead, the solution to the nation’s budget crisis will be found by listening to the voters rather than the politicians. The book is available through Amazon, Barnes & Noble and other major online retailers.

How that budget will be handled in the years ahead may be determined in part by how Florida Republicans vote on Tuesday.

Mitt Romney has jumped back ahead in the fevered Florida GOP Primary race with his support back to where it was before Gingrich’s big win last Saturday in South Carolina. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Wednesday night, shows Romney with 39% support to Gingrich’s 31%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12%, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with nine percent (9%). Four days earlier, just after the South Carolina Primary, Gingrich led Romney 41% to 32%.  Less than two weeks before that, coming off Romney’s decisive win in the New Hampshire Primary, it was Romney 41%, Gingrich 19% in Florida.  Santorum’s and Paul’s support has remained largely the same throughout.

The latest results from Florida are a mirror image of the dynamic found the week before the South Carolina Primary. In the Palmetto State, Gingrich was trailing by 14 points on Monday, but following a strong debate performance he had a two-point lead by Wednesday. That 16-point turnaround seemed stunning at the time. Now, in Florida, it’s Romney’s turn. He trailed by nine points in the Sunshine State on Sunday  but enjoyed a 17-point comeback by Wednesday.

The charges have been flying fast and furious about Gingrich’s marital and professional behavior and Mitt Romney’s taxes and business practices. But 68% of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide believe Gingrich is at least as ethical as most politicians, while 82% say the same of Romney. However, just nine percent (9%) now think Gingrich has the best personal character of the remaining major GOP hopefuls, placing him fourth out of four.

Still, Gingrich’s angry denial of the marital charges and his attack on the media for reporting it appears to have worked at least initially, helping to propel him to a big win in South Carolina and to jump ahead dramatically early in the week in the national GOP race. He’s suffered a lot of criticism from fellow Republicans this past week, however, so it will be interesting to see if his national lead like his lead in Florida begins to fade.

Evangelical Christians and Tea Party Republicans were critical to Gingrich’s South Carolina win. Whether he can hold that vote is an open question. After all, Americans believe overwhelmingly in the importance of marriage, and a sizable number continue to feel it’s too easy to get a divorce in this country. 

But as Scott Rasmussen explains in his latest syndicated column, “Gingrich has benefited thus far from the fact that when it comes to ethics, voters always grade politicians on a curve. … Ironically, Rasmussen polling first identified how steep a curve is used to judge political ethics at the time Gingrich was trying to drag down President Bill Clinton on personal transgressions. In that case, and in just about every other political scandal since, most voters tend to believe that the politician in question is just doing what politicians do. It's a part of the political culture that voters would desperately like to see changed.”

While many pundits have taken to describing the race for the Republican nomination as a two-man competition between Romney and Gingrich, a third of GOP voters nationwide think it would be good for the party if someone else jumped into the contest. 

Make sure the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is a regular part of your day.  It's updated daily at 9:30 am Eastern with Obama’s latest job approval numbers and now includes matchups of the president with Romney and Gingrich every day. 

Republicans lead again on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot as they have every week but one since June 2009.

Voters also continue to trust Republicans more than Democrats on the number one issue of the economy, but they now trust Democrats at least slightly more on five of the 10 most important issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. This is the first survey since May 2009 in which the GOP doesn't have an edge on a majority of the issues.

For the first time in nine months, more than half of Americans believe purchasing a home is the best investment for a family, but this finding is still well below results measured several years ago. 

According to the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes on Friday, 28% of consumers think the U.S. economy is getting better these days, up from 18% measured three months ago. Just over half (51%) feel the economy is getting worse.  Among investors, 32% say economic conditions in the country are getting better, while 48% say they're getting worse.

While Americans worry about inflation in general, they agree that it’s getting cheaper to buy a congressman or governor. Thirty-five percent (35%) now think a contribution of $10,000 or less will influence one of these elected officials. Just 24% felt that was enough six years ago. A similar level of skepticism about the politicians is common across all partisan lines.

But then adults nationwide feel more strongly than ever that most members of Congress don’t play by the rules and want full disclosure when congressmen meet with regulators and other government officials.

Most Americans, regardless of political affiliation, think the country needs more campaign finance laws, but a plurality still opposes public financing of presidential elections. They’re evenly divided over whether incumbents should be banned from receiving campaign contributions of any kind.

In other surveys last week:

-- Twenty-six percent (26%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, the highest level of optimism measured in over seven months. But 67% still believe the country is heading down the wrong track.

-- Most voters still want to repeal the national health care law even though they’re not overly worried that it will force them to change their insurance coverage.

-- As insurgent violence in Iraq grows following the withdrawal of U.S. troops, voters’ perceptions that the situation there will get better have fallen to an all-time low. There's similar pessimism about Afghanistan, but voters are still relatively confident that the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror. 

-- Adults nationwide overwhelmingly believe that it is important for children to grow up in a home with both parents and feel those children have an advantage over those who grow up in a single-parent home.

-- Americans still place high importance on buying U.S.-made products, but most would go with a foreign product if it’s cheaper and better than its American counterpart. 

-- Congress’ Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) is in limbo in the face of strong opposition from Internet giants like Google and Wikipedia fearful of government censorship. Most voters agree that online piracy of films is theft, but they, too, are more concerned about Internet censorship than about someone downloading movies without paying for them.

-- When it comes to immigration reform, most voters continue to feel border security should be the main focus but also think it’s important to create a welcoming policy that excludes only threats to society. 

-- While Americans seem to be showing a bit more confidence in the economy, their eating habits haven't changed much. Forty-five percent (45%) are dining out less often than they were six months ago. That finding has changed little since July, but it’s a big improvement from November 2008 just after the Wall Street meltdown when 57% said they were eating out less.

-- Increasing numbers of restaurants around the country are disclosing nutritional information on their menus, and 66% of American Adults are at least somewhat confident in the accuracy of that information.

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Don't forget Scott's other books, “In Search of Self Governance   and “Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System ,” co-written with Doug Schoen.

A Wall Street Journal profile called Scott Rasmussen "America's Insurgent Pollster." The Washington Post described him as "a driving force in American politics."  If you'd like Scott to speak at your conference or event, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau.

Remember, if it's in the news, it's in our polls.