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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
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Barack Obama got the expected bounce from a successful Democratic National Convention, but the week was bookended by both candidates’ surprise choices for their running mates.

By Friday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed the Democratic candidate opening up his biggest lead over Republican John McCain since late July. With the Republican National Convention next week, however, the bounce is likely to be short-lived.

Perhaps the bigger news in terms of long-term impact was Obama’s selection last Saturday of Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and an old Washington hand, as his party’s vice presidential candidate. Voters expecting something different from a candidate who bills himself as an agent of change were underwhelmed by the choice, especially women, but they warmed to the selection as the week went on.

McCain had a bigger surprise in store when on Friday he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, and she immediately aimed at independent and Democratic women disaffected by Hillary Clinton’s loss. While Palin is highly popular in her home state, she was unknown nationally before being selected--67% of voters didn’t know enough about her to have an opinion.

However, after being introduced as McCain’s running mate, Palin made a good first impression and is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her numbers today are a bit better than those for the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Joe Biden, but the more important measure will be reaction to Palin next week after the nation knows more about her.

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For the Democrats though, it isn’t just about the bounce. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Democrats say this week’s convention has unified the party. Both Bill and Hillary Clinton are credited by a majority of Democrats with helping Obama and wanting him to win. The Clintons’ support is critical because Democrats worry that women voters in particular have been unhappy since Mrs. Clinton dropped out of the race for the presidential nomination.

Speaking of Democratic women, four out of 10 voters (39%) believe Obama’s wife Michelle, who has battled high negatives for months, is Very Liberal, and just over one-quarter (26%) expect her to be Very Involved in making important policy decisions if her husband is elected president. Just a few days after Mrs. Obama addressed the Democratic convention, her favorability ratings have reached their highest levels since tracking began, and she is now viewed more favorably than Cindy McCain.

By the way, meet Obama through the eyes of what voters have been telling us about him.

Voter confidence in the War on Terror is at the highest level ever recorded since Rasmussen Reports began regular tracking in January 2004. Optimism about the situation in Iraq is also at an all-time high, with 48% now expecting the situation in that troubled country to get better over the next six months versus 17% who expect it to get worse. Last August, just 27% thought things were going to get better while 47% were pessimistic.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of American consumers on a daily basis, rose two points on Friday, reaching its highest level since March 2. The Rasmussen Investor Index also rose two points the same day hitting its highest reading since March 4.

Small business owners' economic confidence rose for the second straight month from a 22-month low in June, the Discover(R) Small Business WatchSM has found.

But then voters are more optimistic about the nation’s future than they have been in over four years.
Voters this week also told us:

-- They are evenly divided on which course is best in the current economic climate -- controlling inflation or promoting growth, and they are looking to both major parties for answers. Still, voters continue to trust Obama slightly more than McCain on both energy and economic issues.

-- A year ago Democrats were planning on riding opposition to the highly unpopular war in Iraq right into the White House, but voters tell us now they trust McCain over Obama on national security issues 52% to 41%.

-- Democrats list Jimmy Carter and Al Gore as their favorite party members (other than Barack and Hillary, of course). But more Democrats also have a Very Favorable opinion of independent Senator Joseph Lieberman than of the party’s Senate leader Harry Reid, which may help explain why the percentage of voters who give the Democratic-dominated Congress good or excellent ratings has once again fallen to single digits.

-- In this week’s state polling, there were no surprises. McCain remains well ahead in Texas and Mississippi. Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn remains comfortably out front in his bid for reelection but is under 50% which is always dangerous for an incumbent. In Mississippi, there’s little change in the race between appointed GOP Senator Roger Wicker who attracts 47% of the vote, while Democrat Ronnie Musgrove earns support from 42%.

-- It’s lucky for Republicans that Colin Powell is still one of them since the popular former secretary of state does better than Obama in a one-on-one match-up with McCain.

-- Recently, a group of over 100 college presidents, including those from Duke, Dartmouth and Middlebury, proposed lowering the drinking age to 18 as a way to combat excessive drinking on campuses. But 52% of Americans believe the legal drinking age should stay at 21.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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