Could John McCain (R) Beat Hillary Clinton (D) in Massachusetts? The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in the Bay State shows McCain wresting 44% of the vote to 43% for Clinton. The numbers are identical for a hypothetical contest between McCain and Al Gore (D).

As a practical matter, this very blue state probably won't run red in the next presidential election. While a McCain-Clinton and McCain-Gore match-ups are a toss-up, the survey also found that when asked about a generic match between unnamed Republican and Democratic candidates, the Democrat wins 53%-22%.

Clinton leads another Republican, Rudy Giuliani, 50% to 42%. Gore leads the former Mayor of New York 50% to 41%.

It’s hard to think of a scarier scenario for Democrats than Massachusetts as a toss-up state on Election Night in 2008. In 2004, John Kerry won the state with 62% of the vote. Even George McGovern, buried under the Nixon landslide of 1972, managed to pick up the Bay State’s Electoral Votes.

The pattern of McCain and Giuliani outperforming the generic Republican when matched against Clinton and Gore is one we're seeing in state after state. In almost every state we've polled the 2008 race, Democrats do very well over Republicans when survey respondents are given a generic choice. Even in solid GOP-leaning states like Montana, the Generic Democrat polls very well. In Massachusetts, 53% prefer Generic Democrat, only 22% prefer Generic Republican.

But unnamed Republicans and Democrats are never listed on the ballot. And when asked about four high-profile politicians considering a presidential run, even voters of Democrat-leaning states tend to like the Republicans more. (Details are available to Premium Members.) Many factors may be involved, including the personal baggage of the Democrats named, former Vice-President Al Gore and Hillary Clinton; and the high positives of the Republicans named, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.

The two Republicans also might benefit, in the bluish states, from being seen as more liberal than other Republicans. But that perception would likely change in the crucible of an actual presidential campaign, when candidates become defined as more partisan as the campaign proceeds. McCain's strength among unaffiliated voters—he attracts 52% in Massachusetts, versus Clinton's 32%—make him seem a formidable candidate this early on. But if McCain is the GOP standard bearer in 2008, he would likely be regarded as more Republican and more conservative by Election Day, and thus have little chance of scooping up the Bay State's electoral votes.

We polled about McCain, Clinton, Giuliani, and Gore because they have sufficient name recognition to be tested in every state. Two other Democrats might have fared better and most other Republicans might have fared worse. Several months ago, a Rasmussen Reports survey found Clinton soundly defeating Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R ) in a 2008 Presidential match-up. Romney is a GOP presidential hopeful.

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