Democrats currently hold a 12-point advantage over Republicans on a generic 2008 Presidential ballot. However, a third-party candidate focusing on immigration enforcement issues could fundamentally alter those political dynamics.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national opinion survey finds that 44% of Americans say they would vote for a Democrat if the Presidential Election were held today. Just 32% would vote for a Republican. Those figures are likely a reflection of unhappiness with the Bush Administration rather than a commentary on prospective candidates from either party (see crosstabs).

The survey also asked respondents how they would vote if "a third party candidate ran in 2008 and promised to build a barrier along the Mexican border and make enforcement of immigration law his top priority."

With that option, support fell sharply for both major parties. The Democrats still come out on top with support from 31% of Americans. The third party candidate moved into a virtual tie at 30% while the GOP fell to 21%.

This result probably reflects unhappiness with both parties on the immigration issue rather than a true opportunity for a third party. Historically, issues that drive third party candidates get co-opted by one of the major parties as they demonstrate popular appeal. Most Americans favor a barrier along the border and enforcement of existing law prior to other reforms.

With the immigration issue candidate as an option, 36% of conservative voters opt for the Republican candidate while 35% take the third party option. Among political moderates, 34% pick the Democrat while 32% prefer the third party option.

The impact of the immigration issue is found despite the fact that Americans believe both the situation in Iraq and the economy are more important voting issues. However, on issues such as Iraq and the economy, both parties have fairly established positions and voters line up with the party whose views they share. Immigration is unsettling for the status quo because it cuts across the typical partisan and ideological lines in ways that could reshape the nation's political equilibrium.

An earlier survey found that, in a hypothetical race for Congress, a plurality of Americans would vote for the candidate who favors more enforcement on the immigration issue.

Another earlier survey found that two-thirds of Americans believe it doesn't make sense to debate new immigration laws until we can first control our borders and enforce existing laws. That same survey found that 40% of Americans favor "forcibly" requiring all 11 million illegal immigrants to leave the United States.

While the short-term benefit may accrue to those who favor a tougher enforcement policy, the long-term implications of the issue are less clear. At the moment, neither political party enjoys unity within its own ranks on the issue. Politicians from both sides are struggling with the nuances of the issue.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members.