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Rasmussen Markets Update: Romney Win Reshapes GOP Race
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
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By the time the networks declared Mitt Romney the winner in Michigan, Rasmussen Markets data showed that John McCain’s momentum had already been slowed. At 9:00 p.m. Eastern, McCain was given a 36% chance of winning the GOP nomination. That’s down 9 percentage points since this morning. A Rasmussen Reports analysis also notes that the Michigan exit polls show challenges for McCain. At the same time Romney was seen as having a 22% chance of representing the GOP in November. That’s up nine points since the morning. Rudy Giuliani’s prospects were set at 21%, up a couple. The expectations have also shifted in South Carolina. When Romney was declared the winner, McCain was given a 40% chance of winning in the first Southern Primary. That’s down seventeen points today. The last Rasmussen Reports South Carolina poll before Michigan showed McCain in the lead. Perhaps the most dramatic change in expectations can be found in the Florida campaign. Giuliani is once again given the best chance of winning—35% at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. McCain’s chances fell twenty-five points to 25%. The last Rasmussen Reports poll in Florida showed a four way tie for the lead. Numbers in this article are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where players "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news futures, RasmussenMarkets.com harnesses competitive passions to become a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Prospects for other candidates and other races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. The numbers are likely to continue shifting overnight. Prospects for South Carolina, Florida, other candidates and other races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. Rasmussen Markets data is updated continuously throughout the day on a 24/7 basis. Current pricing shows McCain with a % chance of winning the nomination. He is followed by Mitt Romney at %, Giuliani at %, Mike Huckabee at %, and Fred Thompson at %. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESWhen the Warmest in History Isn't By Debra J. Saunders What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Electoral College: Obama 260 McCain 160 77% Say Children Should Say Pledge At School Every Day 68% Say Obama Politically Liberal Labels Matter: Progressive Better than Liberal, Reagan-Like Better than Conservative Voters Have Low Opinion of Congressional Democrats Key to the Economy Black, Youth Voters Continue to Show Greater Optimism in Nation’s Future 68% Prefer “Merry Christmas” to “Happy Holidays” Advertisement
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