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Rasmussen Markets Update: Obama Now Overwhelming Favorite to Win Democratic Presidential Nomination
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On the morning after his big victory in Wisconsin, Rasmussen Markets data showed that Barack Obama had a 79% chance of winning the Democratic Presidential nomination. Hillary Clinton’s prospects had fallen to just 20% (current prices: Obama : % Clinton: %). Those figures reflect a nine-percentage point gain for Obama--before voting began in Wisconsin, the markets gave Obama a 70% chance of victory.

The impact of the Illinois Senator’s solid seventeen-point victory is also seen in expectations for the upcoming primaries in Texas and Ohio. On Wednesday morning, Rasmussen Markets show Obama with a 70% chance of winning Texas, up from 54% the previous morning (current prices: Obama : % Clinton: %). The same pattern is seen in the Buckeye State, where Obama was given a 47% chance of victory on Wednesday morning, up from 38% the day before (current prices: Obama : % Clinton: %).

Part of the reason for the shift may be that, in Wisconsin, Obama once again proved to be a very strong closer. According to the exit polls, 30% of voters made up their mind in the final week of campaigning and they overwhelmingly favored Obama. Those results are consistent with a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted a week before the Primary which showed Obama with a modest lead but 24% of voters still saying they could change their mind. Over the past week, Obama has also gained ground nationally and taken the lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Exit polls also show that Obama cut deeply in Clinton’s core constituencies while winning the vote in Wisconsin. Most notably, Obama split the votes of women evenly with Clinton. Obama won among all age groups except those 65 and older. But, even among the seniors, he picked up 45% of the vote. Obama also won among the less educated and lower-income voters, segments of the electorate that had typically supported Clinton earlier in the year.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters in Wisconsin said that Obama has a better chance of winning in November than Clinton. In most of the states polled recently, Obama outperforms Clinton in match-ups with John McCain.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.