Following his victory in New Hampshire last week, John McCain instantly became the frontrunner in Michigan’s Republican Presidential Primary. But, over the past few days, McCain has lost that status and is now seen in a very competitive race with Michigan native Mitt Romney.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain was given a 58% chance of winning Michigan immediately following the New Hampshire victory. Within two days, expectations for McCain’s prospects peaked at 68%. Polling released by Rasmussen Reports and others on Saturday showed a potentially closer race and expectations for McCain fell to 49% by the end of the weekend. Current pricing shows McCain with a % chance of winning in Michigan.

As McCain’s numbers have declined, Romney’s have moved in the opposite direction. Following his loss in New Hampshire, Romney was given just a 24% chance of winning in Michigan. By the end of the weekend, that had doubled to 50%. Current pricing shows Romney with a % chance of winning in Michigan.

McCain is currently seen as the most likely candidate to win the Republican nomination. As of 7:00 a.m. Eastern on Monday, he was given a 43% chance of representing the GOP on the Presidential ballot (current pricing %). However, those numbers have also softened a bit in the past couple of days.

Numbers in this article are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where players "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news futures, RasmussenMarkets.com harnesses competitive passions to become a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Prospects for other candidates and other races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page.

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