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Market Update: Markets See Obama as Democratic Frontrunner
Sunday, January 06, 2008
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Data from the Rasmussen Markets suggests that Barack Obama is the new frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. As of 6:30 a.m. on Sunday morning, data from the markets implies that Obama has a 56% chance of representing his party on the ballot in November. At the same time, Hillary Clinton is seen as having a 40.5% chance of being nominated (current market prices: Obama %, Clinton %). This reflects a fundamental change since the Iowa caucuses. The closing prices on the day before Iowa showed that Clinton had a 65% chance of winning while Obama was a distant second at 29%. On the Republican side, there remains no clear frontrunner. At 6:30 a.m.Sunday morning, John McCain was seen to have a 33% chance of winning while the markets showed Rudy Giuliani with a 31% chance (current numbers: McCain % Giuliani %). The markets also point to Barack Obama and John McCain as the likely winners in New Hampshire. Current prices show that Obama has a % chance of winning the Democratic Primary in the Granite State while McCain has a % chance on the Republican side. These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESObama Approval Index Month-by-Month Partisan Economics: Democrats, GOP See Different Economy What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Public Support for Sotomayor Falls After Supreme Court Reversal Republicans Lead Again on Congressional Ballot Plans for General Motors Might Run Afoul of Public Opinion Massachusetts: 26% Consider State’s Health Care Reform a Success 56% Don’t Want To Pay More To Fight Global Warming Americans Still Embrace Ideals from Declaration of Independence Advertisement
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