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Market Update: Markets See Obama as Democratic Frontrunner
Sunday, January 06, 2008
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Data from the Rasmussen Markets suggests that Barack Obama is the new frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. As of 6:30 a.m. on Sunday morning, data from the markets implies that Obama has a 56% chance of representing his party on the ballot in November. At the same time, Hillary Clinton is seen as having a 40.5% chance of being nominated (current market prices: Obama %, Clinton %). This reflects a fundamental change since the Iowa caucuses. The closing prices on the day before Iowa showed that Clinton had a 65% chance of winning while Obama was a distant second at 29%. On the Republican side, there remains no clear frontrunner. At 6:30 a.m.Sunday morning, John McCain was seen to have a 33% chance of winning while the markets showed Rudy Giuliani with a 31% chance (current numbers: McCain % Giuliani %). The markets also point to Barack Obama and John McCain as the likely winners in New Hampshire. Current prices show that Obama has a % chance of winning the Democratic Primary in the Granite State while McCain has a % chance on the Republican side. These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESElectoral College Update: Obama Lead Narrows to 10 Votes Tonight’s Other Big Speaker is Popular – and Polarizing Meet Barack Obama As Voters See Him 74% of Democrats Say Convention Has Unified Them Congressional Approval Ratings Tie Record Low Powell Far More Likely than Obama to Beat McCain Confidence in War on Terror and Iraq at Highest Level Ever Democrats Talkin' Like the GOP By Debra J. Saunders Democrats Rank Carter and Gore as Favorites Advertisement
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